Will the NT get one last blast of heavy rain?

Post by **Matt Flynn** » Sat Mar 06, 2010 10:36 am

Will the NT get one last blast of good monsoonal rain?

We might. BOM said on March 3 ...

"Over the past week or so, we have observed a reinvigoration of the monsoon trough over northern Australia, However, the MJO (heavy rain period) signal remains weak and indiscernable.

"There is a moderate level of uncertainty associated with current computer model forecasts of the MJO, which mostly suggest that the MJO will remain weak in its intensity during the next week or two. Weighing up all available guidance, it is expected that although no active phase of the MJO is expected to enter Australian longitudes in the next week or so, north Australian rainfall should remain typical of what can be expected for the month of March.

"At this early stage, the next active MJO to affect Australian longitudes is likely to be towards the end of March / early April, although this comes with considerable uncertainty."

BEAR · Post by **BEAR** » Sat Mar 06, 2010 10:49 am

I hope so, I reckon it''ll be p!zzing down by next late next week

max · Post by **max** » Sat Mar 06, 2010 12:30 pm

Im hoping so too Bear as I dont get hols.for 2 weeks yet and looking at doing the East first week then Finniss the following,we will camp on the boat for a couple of nights at each so thats when it will bucket down the same as it did down the Daly last year,oh well its only water

scottmac · Post by **scottmac** » Sat Mar 06, 2010 2:16 pm

I'm on R&R for two weeks on Wednesday, so if all goes to plan, I'll move into my new house Thursday through to Saturday, head east to the East sunday, Magela will be running at about 600mm, the East will go off on the building tides

, come back Wednesday, smash Shoal Bay Thursday and Friday, then no plans until back to work Thursday 25th and the monsoon will start same day!!!!

But when do things ever go to plan?

punter · Post by **punter** » Mon Mar 08, 2010 8:23 am

If you're moving this Thursday you can bet the rain will come then!

Post by **Matt Flynn** » Mon Mar 08, 2010 9:01 am

Fairly serious high pressure system coming over ...

Ernie · Post by **Ernie** » Mon Mar 08, 2010 9:20 am

I reccon we'll get one more lot in the next couple of weeks

But even if we scrape up the average for March we'll be around 2 mt for the wet and you can't complain about that

Blinky · Post by **Blinky** » Mon Mar 08, 2010 10:35 am

I reckon that's it for another monsoon..............finished. Maybe some arvo storms but for me the Wet is done.

punter · Post by **punter** » Mon Mar 08, 2010 10:58 am

Blinky wrote:I reckon that's it for another monsoon..............finished. Maybe some arvo storms but for me the Wet is done.

+1
We might have some good old fashioned "knock 'em downs" eh!

Walkabout · Post by **Walkabout** » Mon Mar 08, 2010 1:56 pm

We have had more than the entire wet season average already with 2 months to go. They count on 300mm in march and 100mm aprill average but that would make this the all time record wet season if it did happen. So my guess is it's all over. Looking at the pic of the charts = classic dry season look with that big high pressure. Few knock em downs mxed in and clear blue skies. Perfect

bandit · Post by **bandit** » Mon Mar 08, 2010 9:47 pm

im hoping this is it... give the daly a chance to drop out and green up by end of april.

Gibbo · Post by **Gibbo** » Tue Mar 09, 2010 3:53 pm

Just heard from ERNIE (the weather guru) that a weak monsoon could and probably will (wishfull thinking as i,m at Shady for 12 days as of the 28th) develop around the 20 to the 24th of march
Bring it on i say

cheers

Blinky · Post by **Blinky** » Tue Mar 09, 2010 3:55 pm

I'm with CB!

tinni · Post by **tinni** » Tue Mar 09, 2010 4:32 pm

dragon flies in numbers off my balcony last night, always seems to me to be a good indicator the dry is on its way, no more rain I dont think

Ernie · Post by **Ernie** » Tue Mar 09, 2010 8:08 pm

Onya Gibbo put the pressure on

and I said a weak MJO not monsoon trough, anyway we'll see what comes

Forecast guidance suggest that a weak active MJO event may progress from the Indian Ocean to the east during next week or two. It is expected that although this weak phase of the MJO is likely to propagate through Australian longitudes in the next week or so, north Australian rainfall should remain typical of what can be expected for the month of March.
From the BOM