Development of 2020/21 wet season

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Matt Flynn
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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by Matt Flynn » Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:37 pm

Looks like the wet season is on the East Coast ...

We had a week of rain here (southern Taz) but it was so windy most of it dried up before it could soak in.

The wind felled a tree nearby and killed two cows. I asked a long-time local farmer: "Do you think it is getting windier?" and he said yes. I asked the question because studies have shown Southern Ocean wind speeds are increasing.

No fires though this year, yet, that's a plus ...
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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by nomad » Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:13 pm

When I moved to tassie I built a big shed. The building inspector advised that I needed more bracing to bring it up to class 4 regs.
I said “that’s cyclone rating’
He said “yep, we get BIG winds here”
Not wrong. The first few weeks I was there, my wheelie bins were blown up the road about 50m.

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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by Matt Flynn » Tue Jan 05, 2021 6:31 am

When I moved to tassie I built a big shed. The building inspector advised that I needed more bracing to bring it up to class 4 regs. I said “that’s cyclone rating’
He said “yep, we get BIG winds here”
Almost got blown off the ladder last week while cleaning shed gutters.

I check my shed joints for cracks after gales. I have added a heap more screws to hold the corrugated iron tight against all vertical beams, hopefully this adds strength as a monocoque.

Meanwhile, Queensland is getting good rain ... https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-05/ ... n/13029948

Sydney also been getting smashed by storms the past week.

Down here, so far this summer it has looked almost constantly like it is going to rain, with dark clouds, but invariably it doesn't rain much, if at all, and the ground is bone dry.

Local rainforest river I fish on occasion is just a trickle despite rain clouds holding over the mountain range through December.

Dam didn't move at all after a week or two of regular drizzle in December, it all evaporated off the ground.

La Nina is currently being described as "medium" and expected to end in March. Week of warm weather forecast here this week.

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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by NinjaFish » Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:08 am

This lot was originally forecast to head in over the Katherine region from the Gulf.

Sucked away by Qld once again but I spose they needed it too.
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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by Matt Flynn » Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:36 am

WTF - Tung Oil Alert?

That's some serious rain.

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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by Matt Flynn » Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:59 pm

Brisbane getting the wet season ... heavy rain over Somerset and Wivenhoe Dams here.

Keep in mind that some big dams just across the border in NSW in 2019 were at around 5% or even less.

Darwin getting some too.
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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by Matt Flynn » Thu Jan 07, 2021 6:37 am

Wet season so far has been underwhelming for the Top End ... early days though.
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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by Matt Flynn » Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:03 am

Bit wet in Darwin this morning ...
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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by Matt Flynn » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:27 pm

Despite some historically significant falls around Darwin this year the rivers have not flooded. Someone told me the aquifers around Darwin are again full, dunno if this is true, but impressive if it is, as they were in a poor state last year.

Beeboom (Daly) got up to 13m this week.

Some run-off pix and barramundi are showing up on FB/Insta.

BOM one-month rainfall anomaly map attached shows rain has fallen mainly on the coast, except for Arnhem Land.

BOM river data attached for today. Need a big low pressure system to move across the Top End catchments.
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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by NinjaFish » Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:03 pm

Yep. Most people I know have full tanks and bores around the Darwin area wide.
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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by ronje » Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:38 am

Glad you guys are getting some.

Ever heard of the Hadley Cell? First 2 -3 pages of the link.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ch ... -notes.pdf

As the earth sits up straighter, the tropics suffer "tropic squeeze" (they are moving closer to each other).

The Hadley distribution of warmer moist air carried up into the troposhere from the equatorial region and towards the poles changes and the cooler drier air falls back to earth at latitudes different to what they have been. Its not a sudden change. Its been happening for hundreds of years.

Changes in climate is particularly evident at those latitudes (around 30 degrees N and S latitudes). Climate is now drier around those latitudes.

Northern edge of the Sahara desert in N Africa is moving north towards the Mediterranean Sea. Look at GE at the western s/w edges of Cairo. The unstoppable march of the Sahara.

Rain in the CQ belt has been that of numerous storm cells moving around but not banded together as widespread rain. The coastal Fitzroy tributaries from the north (Isaacs and Connor rivers) are basically the only ones that have run for the last couple of years. They rise in Mackay/Sarina hinterland.

Rocky's "normal wet" (as we know it) isn't normal anymore.
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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by Matt Flynn » Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:39 am

Interesting weather in Texas at the moment, a lump of Arctic weather went south after the polar vortex broke down, sending Arctic temperatures across the USA, pipes have been bursting in houses not really designed for prolonged freeze, the power grid could not cope with the heating demand, now many are without water or electricity.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ather-cold

Polar vortex breakdown has happened before but it is expected to happen more with climate change. It causes flip-flop weather from extreme hot to cold.

(Separately, the Trumpers are pointing at the big freeze and saying: "Look, no global warming!")

Been trying to find if the southern vortex is expected to do the same. Antarctic is not warming as fast as the Arctic thankfully. Our wood fire would be burning hard if we had a bout of -30C :D

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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by NinjaFish » Fri Feb 19, 2021 3:17 pm

Some minor good news for the inland catchments.
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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by NinjaFish » Sat Feb 20, 2021 3:20 pm

Looking better by the hour
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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by Matt Flynn » Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:12 pm

Magela Creek crossing hit 2m, Wildman .3m over the road, looking better for Kakadu rivers.

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