North Australian FISH FINDER TM forums

BOM's latest Tropical Note, released today

Wet conditions for northern Australia

Above-average rainfall is expected across much of northern Australia for the remainder of March. The most recent rainfall outlook from the Bureau indicates a high chance of above-median rainfall across northern Australia in the coming fortnight. The wetter outlook also extends into April although the area of higher rainfall probability reduces somewhat.

While La Niña has been the primary climate influence affecting Australian rainfall patterns in recent months, sea surface temperatures (SST) across the tropical Pacific Ocean continue to warm and are currently at neutral levels. It is typical for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events to dissipate at this time of the year, and most climate models indicate a neutral ENSO state (neither La Niña or El Niño) is likely to become established in the coming weeks. While SST are at neutral levels, some indicators in the atmosphere continue to exhibit La Niña-like characteristics, reflected in the rainfall outlooks through to April.

Read more about the current ENSO state

Monsoon break continues

There is no significant monsoonal flow in the southern hemisphere. Weak cross-equatorial wind flow is apparent across the south-west Indian Ocean and over parts of Indonesia, associated with an equatorial Rossby (ER) wave (a type of tropical atmospheric wave). This tropical wave is moving westwards, away from Australia and the Maritime Continent. An ER wave is typically associated with low-pressure systems, and a tropical low south of Java appears to be related to the current ER wave activity.

This low also appears to have been associated with a cloudband which has recently contributed to significant rainfall and record low daytime temperatures across parts of northern and inland Australia. This tropical low is not expected to intensify significantly in the coming days, but it may continue to be a source of tropical moisture and contribute to further widespread rainfall across northern Australia in the coming week.

With the withdrawal of monsoon activity across northern Australia, the south-easterly trade wind regime has become established. This is indicative of monsoon-break conditions and means rainfall across northern Australia is more likely to be associated with local weather patterns and will generally be isolated and less widespread than during an active monsoon period.

Australia's northern wet season continues until the end of April, so there is still time for another active monsoon period. Current forecasts do not give a clear indication if this will happen, but the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) may move into a region that increases the chance of monsoonal activity developing near the end of March.

Madden–Julian Oscillation over Africa

A moderately strong pulse of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently located over tropical Africa. Climate models indicate this pulse of the MJO is expected to weaken in the next week or so, prior to moving into the Indian Ocean. At this time of the year, an MJO pulse near Africa is typically associated with below-average rainfall across northern Australia and the Maritime Continent.

If the MJO weakens, as predicted, it is unlikely to exert a significant influence on rainfall patterns across the Australian and Maritime Continent regions.

****

Meanwhile, BOM says the La Nine is nearing its end, says BOM ... https://twitter.com/BOM_au/status/1371681571971989504

However, north may get good rain until April.

What La Nina?

Rainfall for Rockhampton last 5 months:
Month mm
Nov 1
Dec 13
Jan 31
Feb 30
Mar (so far) 8
...........................
Total 83
...........................

Crikey, didn't realise it was that bad in Rocky, so many big rain fronts went across the East Coast, it appears all south of you.

Ditto re dry down here, looks all the time like it will rain but it usually doesn't. Lake Gordon is a good indicator in the south-west, 27m from full ... https://www.hydro.com.au/water/lake-lev ... GORDON.pdf

Shame you’re not in the northern Australian region Ronje but it’s not too late for you guys just yet.

We got some decent drizzle around the place last night.