Global warming
Posted: Fri Aug 04, 2017 7:18 am
Agree with Jeno (in another thread) about the lack of effective energy policies.
Here's my 2 bob's worth about changing climate.
Aus govt has been stampeded into the theory that changes in climate have been exacerbated by man and that man needs to "do something" aimed at fixing the problem.
Climate on earth has been changing for the last 4 billion years and by far greater amounts than those pointed at in the last 25 years by the scientific community.
Tunnel vision enthusiasts who choose to ignore the wider effects at play. These guys are taking a snapshot in time and trying to relate it to something within that snapshot as the cause of change.
Earth's weather (and in the longer term climate) changes due to changes in the earth itself.
Our climate and seasons are dictated by the Sun and the physical relationship between the earth and sun.
The 2 main factors that influence that physical relationship are angle of the earth's axis wrt its orbit around the sun ( obliquity) and the current position of the earth in its "axis wobble" cycle (precession).
Obliquity cycles take 41,000 years and precession cycles take 26,000 years and both operate at the same time.
Effectively both influence the angle/lean of the earth's axis.
Below is my side of an exchange about the GBR.
I decided to chase this stuff up after the hullabooloo about coral bleaching effects.
Ron
You will probably be up on this already.
If not, some info for you.
The GBR has an estimated age of between 500,000 years and 100,000 years depending on who you talk to.
Its undergone many changes and its current form is the result of the latest changes 5000 - 10000 years ago brought about by the results of earth's continuing changes in climate.
There are 4 influences that determine how significant those changes are and the rate at which they occur.
They are best described as the Milankovitch Cycle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQSHxY5ZR6
Changes due to combination effects in the earth's obliquity, precession, orbital eccentricity and insolation have a profound effect on the both the amount of solar radiation received on the earth's surface (insolation) and where its received.
In respect of the GBR, the greatest impacts are the results of changes in obliquity (lean or angle) of the earth's axis compared to the plane of the earth's orbit around the sun.
The present obliquity is 23.4 degrees and that's what gives us our seasons.
The lean/angle varies from 22.1 degrees to a max of 24.5 degrees and the lines traced on the earth's surface by those extremes are called the Tropic of Capricorn and the Tropic of Cancer. Currently the obliquity is 23.4 degrees and is heading towards 22.1 degrees (becoming more vertical to the plane of orbit around the sun. That means approaching changes to earth's seasons over time.
That being so, both tropics are on the move towards the equator. The current rate is 14m per year.
This obliquity cycle is 41,000 years. In the case of the tropics they move towards the equator for 20,500 years and then move away from the equator for 21,500 years.
For the Tropic of Capricorn, the southernmost point reached on Qld's coastline is Baffle Creek (north of Bundaberg) about that happened about 8,000 years ago. (24.5 degrees obliquity).
The northernmost point is Clairview near Sarina (22.1 degrees obliquity) and that will be reached in about 12,000 years from now.
Currently at 23.4 degrees, the Tof C is about 4 km south of Rockhampton and heading north @ 14 m per year.
The total distance between extremes is 265 km for Capricorn.
Similarly its 265 km for Cancer.
So the " Torrid Zone " (area between tropics) is reduced by a width of 530 km around the earth every 20,500 years
This means that the amount of solar radiation hitting the earth's spinning axis (equator) is much higher and is marginally more vertical at the equator and less vertical north and south of the tropics.
In the now narrower equatorial belt, the temperature will rise in that belt over the next 12,000 years until the tropics are at their closest then the temp will start to fall as they move away.
Between the tropics (the compressed area where the temps will increase over the next 12,000 years) is where the GBR is located. So expect much more coral bleaching over time.
12,000 years from now the GBR will have changed in form as it already has every 41,000 years in its lifetime.
When the obliquity reaches its maximum of 25.5 degrees, the torrid zone is much wider and the angle at which the sun's energy rays strike earth is shallower and therefore spread out more. Less heating.
At/near that end of the 41,000 year cycle, we have cooling and hence ice-ages.
So both claims of earth warming and earth cooling are correct. The only difference is at which stage of the 41,000 year cycle one is referring to.
Man's capacity to understand the causes and effect of obliquity and warming/cooling associated with climate change has only been possible in the last 5,000 - 6,000 years. As a result, there has been no meaningful understanding of a full 41,000 year cycle.
So, are manmade activities of sufficient significance to have any impact as claimed? How does anything done by mankind in the last 2000 years compare to what climate changes the earth inflicts on itself?
It obviously doesn't.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZD8THEz18gc
That 41,000 year obliquity cycle has impressed upon it another (smaller) set of cyclic variations (25,000 year cycle) called precession which have minor effects on the obliquity cycle.
The extremes of climate occur when the effects of the 4 main climate change drivers line up to produce either max temperatures on earth of minimum temperatures on earth (glacial periods). About the centre of the attached link.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQSHxY5ZR6w
regards[/img]
Here's my 2 bob's worth about changing climate.
Aus govt has been stampeded into the theory that changes in climate have been exacerbated by man and that man needs to "do something" aimed at fixing the problem.
Climate on earth has been changing for the last 4 billion years and by far greater amounts than those pointed at in the last 25 years by the scientific community.
Tunnel vision enthusiasts who choose to ignore the wider effects at play. These guys are taking a snapshot in time and trying to relate it to something within that snapshot as the cause of change.
Earth's weather (and in the longer term climate) changes due to changes in the earth itself.
Our climate and seasons are dictated by the Sun and the physical relationship between the earth and sun.
The 2 main factors that influence that physical relationship are angle of the earth's axis wrt its orbit around the sun ( obliquity) and the current position of the earth in its "axis wobble" cycle (precession).
Obliquity cycles take 41,000 years and precession cycles take 26,000 years and both operate at the same time.
Effectively both influence the angle/lean of the earth's axis.
Below is my side of an exchange about the GBR.
I decided to chase this stuff up after the hullabooloo about coral bleaching effects.
Ron
You will probably be up on this already.
If not, some info for you.
The GBR has an estimated age of between 500,000 years and 100,000 years depending on who you talk to.
Its undergone many changes and its current form is the result of the latest changes 5000 - 10000 years ago brought about by the results of earth's continuing changes in climate.
There are 4 influences that determine how significant those changes are and the rate at which they occur.
They are best described as the Milankovitch Cycle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQSHxY5ZR6
Changes due to combination effects in the earth's obliquity, precession, orbital eccentricity and insolation have a profound effect on the both the amount of solar radiation received on the earth's surface (insolation) and where its received.
In respect of the GBR, the greatest impacts are the results of changes in obliquity (lean or angle) of the earth's axis compared to the plane of the earth's orbit around the sun.
The present obliquity is 23.4 degrees and that's what gives us our seasons.
The lean/angle varies from 22.1 degrees to a max of 24.5 degrees and the lines traced on the earth's surface by those extremes are called the Tropic of Capricorn and the Tropic of Cancer. Currently the obliquity is 23.4 degrees and is heading towards 22.1 degrees (becoming more vertical to the plane of orbit around the sun. That means approaching changes to earth's seasons over time.
That being so, both tropics are on the move towards the equator. The current rate is 14m per year.
This obliquity cycle is 41,000 years. In the case of the tropics they move towards the equator for 20,500 years and then move away from the equator for 21,500 years.
For the Tropic of Capricorn, the southernmost point reached on Qld's coastline is Baffle Creek (north of Bundaberg) about that happened about 8,000 years ago. (24.5 degrees obliquity).
The northernmost point is Clairview near Sarina (22.1 degrees obliquity) and that will be reached in about 12,000 years from now.
Currently at 23.4 degrees, the Tof C is about 4 km south of Rockhampton and heading north @ 14 m per year.
The total distance between extremes is 265 km for Capricorn.
Similarly its 265 km for Cancer.
So the " Torrid Zone " (area between tropics) is reduced by a width of 530 km around the earth every 20,500 years
This means that the amount of solar radiation hitting the earth's spinning axis (equator) is much higher and is marginally more vertical at the equator and less vertical north and south of the tropics.
In the now narrower equatorial belt, the temperature will rise in that belt over the next 12,000 years until the tropics are at their closest then the temp will start to fall as they move away.
Between the tropics (the compressed area where the temps will increase over the next 12,000 years) is where the GBR is located. So expect much more coral bleaching over time.
12,000 years from now the GBR will have changed in form as it already has every 41,000 years in its lifetime.
When the obliquity reaches its maximum of 25.5 degrees, the torrid zone is much wider and the angle at which the sun's energy rays strike earth is shallower and therefore spread out more. Less heating.
At/near that end of the 41,000 year cycle, we have cooling and hence ice-ages.
So both claims of earth warming and earth cooling are correct. The only difference is at which stage of the 41,000 year cycle one is referring to.
Man's capacity to understand the causes and effect of obliquity and warming/cooling associated with climate change has only been possible in the last 5,000 - 6,000 years. As a result, there has been no meaningful understanding of a full 41,000 year cycle.
So, are manmade activities of sufficient significance to have any impact as claimed? How does anything done by mankind in the last 2000 years compare to what climate changes the earth inflicts on itself?
It obviously doesn't.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZD8THEz18gc
That 41,000 year obliquity cycle has impressed upon it another (smaller) set of cyclic variations (25,000 year cycle) called precession which have minor effects on the obliquity cycle.
The extremes of climate occur when the effects of the 4 main climate change drivers line up to produce either max temperatures on earth of minimum temperatures on earth (glacial periods). About the centre of the attached link.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQSHxY5ZR6w
regards[/img]