Late blast for 2018?

[Matt Flynn]

http://www.news.com.au/national/norther ... 24133d60d2

[Matt Flynn]

http://www.news.com.au/national/norther ... 0b8c53518f

[ronje]

Don't know about anybody else, but I think that the quality of BOM's predictions has dropped significantly over the last 2 years or so.

They used to get the predictions about what was to happen fairly right and it seemed that the only "iffy" thing was the timing.

Now most of what they predict is "iffy".

[Matt Flynn]

Funny you should say that, a mate in Brisbane reckons they are so cautious now they get it wrong more often, ever since the Brisbane flood debacle.

[Scotty69]

I only use BOM as another reference out of about 6 other (more reliable) sources/models. And a lot of the models have been very inaccurate in the longer range this wet season. Problem with this time of the year is the instability, of monsoonal flow, external influences from northern hemisphere, upper level influences etc, etc. I personally would hate to be a forecaster for up here at this time of the year, particularly over the last month and this month!

[ronje]

Have a look at this link.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=9;144;1&l=pressure

It shows how the 2 southern pressure bands have formed and ditto with the 2 northern bands.

In the middle is the "confused" band where north meets south.

Those 5 areas move in sympathy with the wobble (precession) of the earths axis to produce our seasons.

The wobble constitues only miniute changes in "lean" (obliquity).

The obliquity is changing while the wobble is still happening. The lean is straightening by far more degrees than those involved in the wobble.

Those 2 northern ppressure bands are going to change location on the earth's surface as are the 2 southern bands.

The "confused" band in the middle will also change location to match the new symmetry.

With all 5 bands on the move by angles far greater than those producing our seasons, do you think that the subsequent changes in climate are going to be more significant?

You betcha they are!

Nothing to do with what its claimed mankind has caused.