Development of 2020/21 wet season

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Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by Matt Flynn » Fri Dec 04, 2020 3:03 pm

Edited the title on this thread as someone seems confused by its intention under the original "Let the good times roll".

Thread is an archive of how this La Nina wet season develops, mainly focused on the Top End.

****

Meanwhile, today's Darwin radar, let the good times roll ...
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Re: Let the good times roll

Post by Matt Flynn » Fri Dec 04, 2020 8:12 pm

From BOM: "The location of the MJO, and the time of the year, also points to favourable circumstances with respect to the development of monsoon conditions across the northern Australia region. Historically, even weak pulses of the MJO, in a favourable location, are associated with monsoon onset at Darwin. The average date of monsoon onset during La Niña years is mid-December. Recent tropical pressure and wind patterns are also indicative of broadscale changes conducive to the development of monsoonal conditions across the Australian region in the coming weeks." ... http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/

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Re: Let the good times roll

Post by Matt Flynn » Sat Dec 05, 2020 3:54 pm

The day after ...
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Re: Let the good times roll

Post by scottmac » Sat Dec 05, 2020 5:38 pm

Sung to the Xmas tune... “It’s beginning to look a lot like Monsoon!” :cheers:
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Re: Let the good times roll

Post by Matt Flynn » Sun Dec 06, 2020 5:25 pm

It so often does rock up at Xmas, and BOM said it might be a week or so earlier this year with the La Nina.

Picture from today's Darwin radar, more good times ...
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Re: Let the good times roll

Post by Matt Flynn » Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:27 pm

Later in the day ... looking good.
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Re: Let the good times roll

Post by Matt Flynn » Mon Dec 07, 2020 6:31 am

Keeps getting better ...
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Re: Let the good times roll

Post by Matt Flynn » Tue Dec 08, 2020 7:01 pm

Latest BOM tropical note ... "The relatively weak Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse, which currently lies over the Maritime Continent, to the north of Australia, is expected to slowly track further east during the coming fortnight, at a similar strength. Along with an equatorial Rossby wave, this MJO pulse is expected to help maintain environmental conditions favourable to above-average rainfall around north-western Australia in the coming week. There is also the potential for significant rainfall to affect parts of the Northern Territory and possibly some parts of Queensland, the following week."

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/

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Re: Let the good times roll

Post by Matt Flynn » Sat Dec 12, 2020 7:50 am

It's all happening as predicted, and it is normal for NT weather to go west.

This early rain hasn't raised Top End rivers yet, except at Dorisvale (Daly), but the storms soak the ground, when the big rain comes the rivers will rise fast.

Today's Top End screenshot attached for the record.

Cape York has had some good early storms, hopefully a prelude to a big La Nina Wet.

Been good moisture over the whole continent the past three days, Brisbane region just had a bottler storm front stretching from the Sunshine Coast to Tweed (image attached).

Looks like the remains of the Kimberley low are heading south to Tassie, thanks for sending, need my dam filled.
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Re: Let the good times roll

Post by Matt Flynn » Sun Dec 13, 2020 8:35 am

More ...
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Re: Let the good times roll

Post by NinjaFish » Sun Dec 13, 2020 8:38 am

Cracking along since 4am. Some good falls too.

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Re: Let the good times roll

Post by Matt Flynn » Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:29 am

This morning's images.

Couple of 100mm+ falls on the Mary catchment.

Bit of a lump flowing through Dorisvale on the Daly.

Biggest rain today on the national radar looks like the Tweed in northern NSW.
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Re: Let the good times roll

Post by Matt Flynn » Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:45 pm

More ...
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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by Matt Flynn » Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:05 am

This is what the La Nina looks like over Oz today, rain almost everywhere along the East Coast, sure beats fires :D
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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by Matt Flynn » Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:10 am

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-16/ ... 0/12989488

Monsoon about to start they say, hopefully all that rain falling at sea will soon be falling on the catchments.

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