Development of 2020/21 wet season

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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by Matt Flynn » Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:01 pm

Daly improving ...
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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by NinjaFish » Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:24 pm

Good news.

Still a bit around at the moment so here’s to a good flushing hopefully.
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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by Matt Flynn » Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:50 pm

Moooorrre ...
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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by Matt Flynn » Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:20 pm

Still going ...
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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by NinjaFish » Thu Feb 25, 2021 6:23 pm

Daly heading for a predicted 13.8 on Sunday on the last moderate flood warning (#6) on BOM site.

Might need to keep an eye on that low that’s hanging east of Cape York at the minute until they decide which way it’s going.


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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by Matt Flynn » Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:44 am

Daly peaked
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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by Matt Flynn » Sat Mar 06, 2021 8:56 am

From BOM tropical note... "Climate models indicate a pulse of the MJO is expected to develop and move east over the tropical Americas and Africa in the coming fortnight. At this time of the year, an MJO pulse in these regions is typically associated with below-average rainfall across northern Australia and the Maritime Continent. The Bureau's current rainfall outlook reflects this with below-average rainfall expected across much of the Northern Territory and northern Western Australia during the first half of March."

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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by bigwoody » Sun Mar 07, 2021 11:33 am

Bugger, the forecast La Nina wet season failed to develop, sure there has been more rain than the last few years but that was easy to achieve. Unless there is another monsoon system this year the wet season is basically finished, the forecast is for the odd shower and storm but no real wide spread rain. A late start of the rain and an early finish equals a below average wet.
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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by Matt Flynn » Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:32 pm

Still hope, Magela Creek crossing 1.8m and rising, Shady Camp floodplains soaked, looks like Spot 6 at Shoal Bay has been firing too.

There was a 107mm fall at Tindal yesterday, the Daly River sitting on 8m, a few good fish showing up across the board.

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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by Matt Flynn » Mon Mar 22, 2021 2:07 pm

It appears the wet season has moved to NSW ...

Aerial footage of the inland sea ... https://www.news.com.au/technology/envi ... 4ed40ec691

Map ... https://www.news.com.au/technology/envi ... 1694a8e7da

And more rain on its way.

From fire to flood.
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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by Matt Flynn » Tue Mar 23, 2021 7:52 am

Red dots over Brisbane ...
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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by Matt Flynn » Tue Mar 30, 2021 4:31 pm

Today's Tropical Note from BOM, released today.

****

Weekly Tropical Climate Note - 30 March 2021 Next issue 6 April 2021

Madden–Julian Oscillation moves into Australian region

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) recently moved into western Maritime Continent longitudes, to the north of Australia. This pulse of the MJO is moderately strong and climate models indicate it will maintain or increase strength in the coming week as it tracks eastwards across the Australian region. At this time of the year, an MJO in this location increases the likelihood of above-average cloudiness and rainfall for far northern Australia and the Maritime Continent. Typically, a westerly wind regime becomes prevalent across these regions as the MJO pulse moves into the eastern Maritime Continent, as it is forecast to do in the coming days, meaning a monsoon can become active.

While the likelihood of a significant burst of monsoonal activity across northern Australia is relatively low at this late stage of the wet season, parts of far northern Australia are likely to feel some of the effects of a monsoon trough that could develop near or to the north of Australia's northern coastline.

Consistent with the MJO forecast, the Bureau's rainfall outlook indicates a high chance of above-median rainfall across the Top End of the Northern Territory and north Queensland in the coming fortnight. Coastal northern Western Australia is also expected to be wetter than average during the same period.

Read more about the Madden–Julian Oscillation
Increased risk of tropical cyclone activity for northern Australia

In addition to the increased chance of above-average rainfall across parts of northern Australia, an MJO in the region means a heightened risk of tropical low and tropical cyclone activity in the coming fortnight. An active monsoon, in association with the MJO and/or another related tropical atmospheric wave (i.e. Kelvin and equatorial Rossby wave), can provide favourable broadscale conditions for the formation of tropical lows, which can intensify to tropical cyclone strength if local atmospheric conditions align. The Australian tropical cyclone season continues until the end of April, indicating this time of the year remains favourable for such tropical systems to develop.

Weather forecast models currently suggest waters to Australia's north may see the formation of a tropical low later this week.

Read more about tropical cyclone information and outlooks
El Niño-Southern Oscillation has returned to neutral

The Bureau has moved its ENSO Outlook to INACTIVE, indicating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state is neutral and the La Niña of 2020–21 has ended. The INACTIVE status means that an ENSO event is not active in the tropical Pacific Ocean and there are no signs of either El Niño or La Niña developing.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/

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Re: Development of 2020/21 wet season

Post by Matt Flynn » Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:05 am

BOM Tropical Note from April 6 ... below average rain outlook unfortunately.

Today's radar attached, very clear. Also the Daly level at the police station gauge.

Now sailfish season? :D

Tropical cyclone activity off Western Australia

Australia's 7th tropical cyclone of the season developed on 5 April, close to Timor. As it formed in the Indonesian region, it was named according to the list used by Indonesia's Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), hence tropical cyclone 'Seroja'. Seroja is currently located to the southwest of Timor, now inside the Australian region, and has intensified to category 2 strength with sustained winds to 100 km/h and peak gusts to 140 km/h. It is expected to continue moving to the south-west, roughly parallel to the Western Australia (WA) coast, and slowly intensify in the coming days.

Another tropical system lies some distance south-west of Seroja, well west of WA. This tropical low is expected to track in a generally eastwards direction and may interact with Seroja later this week. Such a potential interaction is likely to lead to high uncertainty in the movement of both tropical systems. As a result, longer-term scenarios range from rapid system weakening and minor impacts on the WA coast, to a potential tropical cyclone landfall along the Pilbara coast of WA.

The current tropical cyclone total of 7 in the Australian region is less than the long-term average of 11 (and the average of 9 cyclones for the period since 2000), although the tropical cyclone season continues until the end of April. While tropical cyclone numbers have been below-average across Australia, there has been a higher than average number of significant tropical lows in the 2020–21 season.

Read more about tropical cyclone information and outlooks
Madden–Julian Oscillation approaches Western Pacific

A pulse of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) which has been tracking eastwards across the Maritime Continent to Australia's north, is likely to move further east into the Western Pacific region in the coming days. This pulse remains moderately strong, but as it tracks further east, its influence on rainfall patterns across northern Australia is likely to lessen. At this time of the year, an MJO in the tropical Western Pacific typically increases the chance of above-average rainfall across the islands of the South-west Pacific, with some increased chance of above-average cloudiness and rainfall for far northern Australia.

Currently, the most significant rainfall related to the MJO is associated with the tropical systems off Western Australia or in the vicinity of a monsoon trough which lies just north of the Australian mainland. The greatest of likelihood of significant rainfall across the western half of northern Australia would be in association with a landfalling tropical low or cyclone. Current forecasts predict any rainfall for northern WA is likely to be confined to the far western Pilbara or northern Gascoyne districts.

Widespread rainfall is more likely across northern Queensland, although this is mostly due to short-term weather factors and not tropical wave activity such as from the MJO. A surface-level trough currently lies close to the east coast of tropical Queensland, and with an infeed of tropical moisture, is expected to lead to rainfall of 50 to 100 mm across parts of the Cape York Peninsula in the coming days.

Looking further ahead, as the MJO and other tropical wave activity (e.g. equatorial Rossby and/or Kelvin waves) move away from the Australian region, there is unlikely to be any further short-term tropical climate drivers affecting Australia in April. This will most likely mean an end to significant rainfall across northern Australia (particularly the Northern Territory and Western Australia) this wet season, which ends 30 April.

This is reflected in the Bureau's rainfall outlook which indicates a return to below-median rainfall across Western Australia and the Northern Territory from about mid-April.
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