Wet season rain outlook 2019/20

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Matt Flynn
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Wet season rain outlook 2019/20

Post by Matt Flynn » Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:31 pm

NSW getting hit, hopefully Top End looks the same soon ...
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Dinger
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Re: Rain

Post by Dinger » Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:25 am

Certainly not in Yamba Matt.

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Re: Rain

Post by Sullo » Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:15 pm

Dinger wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:25 am
Certainly not in Yamba Matt.
Plenty of fires around,had trouble getting to a few spots around the Nymboida on opening day.

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Re: Rain

Post by Matt Flynn » Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:55 pm

They had a NSW farmer running around in the nude so someone got it :D

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Re: Rain

Post by Matt Flynn » Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:00 pm

Few small storms heading Darwin way :mrgreen:
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Re: Rain 2019/20

Post by NinjaFish » Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:36 pm

Been some good showers around everywhere in the NT.
An Inch from yesterday til 6am this morning and 12mm more to 10am around Darwin.
This front might make another Inch before the morning.

The Barra drought is over. 8)
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Re: Rain 2019/20

Post by NinjaFish » Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:48 pm

Full wet season Scud. :D

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Re: Rain 2019/20

Post by ronje » Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:48 am

The Barra drought is over.

My understanding is that for rain to be of benefit to the barramundi life cycle, it has to produce runoff AFTER the spawning has taken place at the mouths of the river system. That then allows for the fingerlings to seek sanctuary up on the floodplains.

The spawning hasn't happened yet so maybe its a bit early to be counting chickens (or barramundi).
Last edited by ronje on Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Rain 2019/20

Post by Matt Flynn » Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:43 pm

Already been a few meteries caught, I got da pix :D

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Re: Rain 2019/20

Post by Matt Flynn » Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:28 am

Looks like it is trying to be a wet season already ...
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Re: Rain 2019/20

Post by ronje » Thu Nov 14, 2019 5:05 am

Only when shaken, not stirred.

I think you guys will all have to move to Qld as the access screws get tightened further and further up there. But we do need an injection of characters into the local scene. The local immigration detention centre is quite comfortable.

One difference that I have noticed is that barra fishing down here seems to have more of a competitive edge to it particularly in the top 10%.

We've got a few fires down this way at the moment. Been like that for the last month.

At 3am I heard rain on the roof. 2mm of it.

The challenge is a serious one though.
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Re: Rain 2019/20

Post by Matt Flynn » Fri Nov 22, 2019 9:43 am

Looks like the Top End might be the place for wild barra in 2020, having a normal rain outlook from January, if the forecasts are correct ... http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/ ... seasonal/0

Not saying a great wet season is likely - it is just that the forecast elsewhere is poor.

Current conditions are a very strongly positive IOD and neutral ENSO (no La Nina or El Nino), bad for Queensland/NSW, dry with fires.

Top End still has a shot at decent rain in Jan-March.

The current IOD is graphed here ... http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indi ... okmark=iod

A weaker but positive IOD lead into the poor 2018/19 wet season, with perhaps a weak Modoki El Nino (still trying to confirm).

Bring on the Madden Julian Oscillation, haha.

Had smoke haze and 35C yesterday in southern Tasmania, despite no current major fires burning in Tasmania.
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Re: Wet season rain outlook 2019/20

Post by bigwoody » Fri Nov 22, 2019 12:52 pm

Part of the rainfall summary,

"While outlooks for drier than average conditions may ease for some areas heading into 2020, several months of above average rainfall would be needed to see a recovery from current long-term rainfall deficiencies"

Time will tell if its a gauge half full or half empty forecast...
Optimistic Pessimist

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Re: Wet season rain outlook 2019/20

Post by Matt Flynn » Fri Nov 22, 2019 8:36 pm

Bit of action ...
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Re: Wet season rain outlook 2019/20

Post by Matt Flynn » Sun Nov 24, 2019 5:38 am

Storms this mornin' ...
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