The one that got away

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ronje
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Re: The one that got away

Post by ronje » Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:37 pm

Its really comforting to hear that any overspill of coronavirus refugees from Christmas Is is going to be housed in the suburbs of Darwin for quarantine purposes.

Now that there's a second cruise ship probably involved with the virus among the passengers, we can probably expect extra overspill.

That's a wonderful sacrificial gesture by territorians to the broader Australian community.

You know, one of the live-in chinese students who attends the Rockhampton Grammar School has been shifted from voluntary home quarantine to a hospital in town following reports of feeling unwell.

Was trying to understand how voluntary home quarantine works at a boarding school occupied by live-in students just returned from China. If this one tests positive then that's the whole school that will have to be quarantined.

I might shift up to Darwin myself to stay in the Inpex village to avoid it.


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Re: The one that got away

Post by Matt Flynn » Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:50 pm

Interesting what you say about India.

Asian people are possibly more susceptible to pneumonia because they may have more angiotensin receptors in their lungs. This virus apparently latches onto these receptors.

This trait of Asian people has been tested with ACE inhibitor blood pressure drugs, there have been studies (before this new bug appeared) showing possible benefits for Asian people with pneumonia.

The fact the bug targets angiotensin receptors has given rise to conspiracy theories, but it more likely just explains why this bug has taken off in China. The terrible air pollution in cities would not help, a constant assault on lungs.

I've no idea if Indian people have more or fewer angiotensin receptors than average.

That 2% mortality is still high, I think flu is only .1% or .2%. Unless it is bird flu, which is 60%, but it does not easily transmit to humans, thankfully.

They have found this new coronavirus on door knobs which suggests (to me) that money-handling could transmit the disease. Another good reason to wash hands.

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Re: The one that got away

Post by ronje » Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:46 pm

Nah. normal flu (as we know it) and pneumonia are 1.8 - 2 %.

Population is nearly the same for both countries (aybe leaning China's way). So where is it in India or is it simply different dietary habits?


Angiotensin receptors eh. You have the advantage Matt. I have no idea what you are talking about but will have to find out. Angio is associated with heart. Tensin receptors?

This trait of Asian people has been tested with ACE inhibitor blood pressure drugs, there have been studies (before this new bug appeared) showing possible benefits for Asian people with pneumonia.


Another of those big terms.

Lucky for us that this camp was spare and the NT govt is broke and needs money. Christmas Is should be ok in another 8-10 days as the 2 week isolation finishes.

Just cycle arrivals as 1 or other becomes available.
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Re: The one that got away

Post by Matt Flynn » Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:58 pm

It kills mainly older men, it would be interesting to know if men have more of the above-mentioned receptors than women.

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Re: The one that got away

Post by ronje » Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:55 pm

Aus could hire its resources in the NT out as quarantine centres for the world. Create a sphere of prosperity where it could provide employment. Always a business opportunity to emerge from a crisis.

On a more serious note, I think that this is definitely one that got away.

The apparent contagion rate is so high in centres of high population density (eg mainland chinese cities, cruise ships with over 3,000 people crammed together) that its difficult for authorities to keep up with accurate data flow.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

Note that the last update d info is 6 days behind. Lots can happen in 6 days. God built the earth in 6 days while the Chinese took 10 days (or so) to build a hospital. They're learning.

Apart from 2 week quarantine policy, physical separation is a key item in the treatment process.

Cruise ships have very small cramped cabins 'cos they want the passengers out on the decks, casinos and shops spending money. So the thought of spending 2 weeks isolated and cramped up in a cabin with others isn't popular. Nor can it be really classed as quarantine in a cabin with others where's no room to swing a cat.

Apparently there's a resetting of the isolation clock whenever tested cases prove positive. With over 3,000 on board, you could be there forever (probably end up immune).

I see that the spotlight of suspicion is focusing on an animal that looks like an armadillo.
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Re: The one that got away

Post by ronje » Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:51 am

"Sudden spike in coronavirus infection. More than 40,000 cases now confirmed" screams the media.

There's been no sudden spike at all.

The data has simply been updated from being 6 days behind to a current figure (today 11/2).

The mortality rate still sits at 2%.
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Re: The one that got away

Post by Matt Flynn » Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:03 pm

Just saw this ... first direct hit for me. Got a feeling there will be more.

2% is plenty for major problems Ron.
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Re: The one that got away

Post by ronje » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:23 pm

Yep. The Chinese economy will take a hit from coronavirus. I think that the international stock markets have factored it in already. Which is OK for stockmarket players but not so good for companies exposed to the ups and downs of the pace of the Chinese economy. They'll take hits via supply problems.

2% is no worse problem-wise than influenza or pneumonia currently is. The Spanish flu that WW1 returning soldiers brought home worldwide from Europe was deadlier.

I understand that the reports are that the infection rate is plateauing in China. Haven't checked that yet.


Late news..... Have now checked it and the number infected has spiked to 60,000 or so. So there's no plateauing yet. 1360 deaths is still 2.2%. Very slight increase of .2 %.

Number recovered is 6,000 (10% so far. That figure will lag by 2 weeks behind the infection). That lagging figure needs to be subtracted from the number infected to get a clearer picture. You'd have to subtract the current recovered (6,000) numbers from the number infected 2 weeks ago.
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Re: The one that got away

Post by ronje » Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:57 am

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

Looks like confirmed infections in Mainland China are starting to plateau.

Look at the 3 graphs in the lower right hand corner.

I believe that the sudden spike around 10th February was simply due to the data being brought up to date.

Now it appears that the "last update" (lower left hand corner) is current.

Mortality rate is now 2.8% in Hubei Province where it all started.

In the rest of mainland China the infection number is 12259 with the number of deaths at 74.

A mortality rate of .6 % in mainland China (without Hubei Province).

Anybody up for nice peaceful cruise around SE Asia?
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Re: The one that got away

Post by Matt Flynn » Mon Feb 17, 2020 7:35 am

Meanwhile, more argument that it came from a lab ... https://web.archive.org/web/20200214144 ... oronavirus

To quote: "The 2019-nCoV has caused an epidemic of 28,060 laboratory-confirmed infections in human including 564 deaths in China by February 6, 2020. Two descriptions of the virus published on Nature this week indicated that the genome sequences from patients were almost identical to the Bat CoV ZC45 coronavirus. It was critical to study where the pathogen came from and how it passed onto human. An article published on The Lancet reported that 27 of 41 infected patients were found to have contact with the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan. We noted two laboratories conducting research on bat coronavirus in Wuhan, one of which was only 280 metres from the seafood market. We briefly examined the histories of the laboratories and proposed that the coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory. Our proposal provided an alternative origin of the coronavirus in addition to natural recombination and intermediate host."

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Re: The one that got away

Post by ronje » Mon Feb 17, 2020 8:14 am

280 metres away is too close not to be looked at as a possible source of "one that got away".

Most logical method is by a lab worker who visited the seafood market. Many would probably.

Think that we'll ever know?
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Re: The one that got away

Post by Matt Flynn » Mon Feb 17, 2020 10:33 am

Yep, we'll likely never know.

Meanwhile, told you so :D :D :D ... https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1028908771

What's the bet a government somewhere uses this to bring in a "get rid of cash" policy.

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Re: The one that got away

Post by NinjaFish » Mon Feb 17, 2020 3:04 pm

Yep.

Also as expected... an opinion piece.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-17/ ... s/11970506

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Re: The one that got away

Post by Matt Flynn » Mon Feb 17, 2020 7:12 pm

Funny that, I always thought that if a disaster cost, say $10m, then someone must be getting paid $10m to fix the damage? So it can't be all bad?

Also from that article ...
"There are still a lot of people getting infected but the infection rate is coming down, so if that continues, I think we can have reasonable optimism that the number of cases has stabilised," he told the Australia-Canada Economic Leadership Forum.
This is, IMO, misleading.

Africa and Indonesia probably have the virus, and if so, spreading fast. But we wouldn't know. It will get into most countries from these places, one way or another.

The real question: When do we don swimming goggles, mask and rubber gloves for trips to the shop?

And where do they sell bubble suits? Asking for a friend. :D

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