2019 Federal election

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ronje
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2019 Federal election

Post by ronje » Sun May 19, 2019 12:22 pm

Well..Well...Well.

The election that Shorten couldn't lose.

I recall a previous well known pollie making a comment that irrespective of the good and bad arguments or the technical issues involved in elections, the Aus community always manages to get election results right.

Read that as overall, the majority of the Aus community aren't stupid despite the very vocal ratbags and a biased media that they've managed to infiltrate. Read the ABC there.

This election is a classic example.

The high taxing intentions were meant to pay for the big spends particularly the Greens plans for the 45% renewables. There's no doubt in my mind that, had Shorten gotten up, the 45% would have gone to 75% - 100% rapidly.

Extra funding for that increase was intended to come from the transport and agricultural sectors (resources, transport and agriculture being the Paris agreement's targets) of the Aus economy to be put in place over the course of the next three years.

Morrison (by propitious coincidence rather than design but fortunately nevertheless) can kick off with a clean slate having the toxic historical influences of the Turnbull/Abbot sagas, the green brigade fended off, the whiteanting championed by

coalition members grandstanding on social media issues who subsequently theatrically resigned and those who departed to save their superannuation before the pollie's new super laws kicked in (Christopher Pyne's name springs to mind with others).


The Qld labour government has also been given the strongest message over coal mines in CQ for its next election (next year I think). The pragmatism of the Qld premier and the bilnd green alliance of her deputy (Jackie Trad) will be tested.

The Turnbull family's investments in renewable energy has taken a big hit within 24 hrs of the election. Comment is that securty of those investments have been the driving force behind the bids to get rid of the coalition. Lots of money to be made there had Shorten gotten up.

I'll be honest. I'm not a fan of the coalition but I didn't want to go over the economic and lifestyle cliff as proposed by radical climate change proponents. Sidle up to the issue a bit at a time but not jump off the cliff with the ratbag lemmings.

Looks like a case of the ALP now having to look for a major policy plank to politic about.

Focussing on its historical traditional social values from its foundations might be a good place to start.

Don't think that there were many latte drinking, upwardly mobile Sydney and Melbourne attendees at that scraggly little "Tree of Knowledge" beside the Barcaldine railway station in the late 1800s where Labor was born. Labor has incrementally

strayed from its reason for existing as its gotten richer and richer on union money.

Anyway, lets put that in the past but (as John Howard famously said) "be alert not alarmed".


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Ronje

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Re: 2019 Federal election

Post by BigT » Sun May 19, 2019 3:34 pm

Well said

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Re: 2019 Federal election

Post by Matt Flynn » Sun May 19, 2019 7:38 pm

It's an interesting result. The electorate has pretty much dismissed climate change as an election issue, people refuse to be inconvenienced or put at economic risk, future danger from a warming climate appears to be too intangible.

It suggests climate change won't be managed by elected governments, therefore whatever course it is taking will continue. Now at 415ppm CO2 (plus methane and nitrous oxide) and rising faster than ever ...

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Re: 2019 Federal election

Post by ronje » Mon May 20, 2019 6:50 am

I think the election result was simply a case of idealism versus reality, Matt.

The Labor/Green alliance was trying to do too much too soon in blinkered haste.

There has only ever been 1 person who was elected to office based on a promise to introduce a new tax and that was John Howard and the GST.

This crowd was promising to introduce $387 billion of new taxes. An election suicide vest. Shorten is no John Howard.

I don't think that climate change has been rejected. I think that the signal is just that the community wants it to be handled in a more measured way.

What was a mistake though was the tactic of trying to ram change down people's throats. The greens and their radical mates (Get-up) couldn't see that their tactics would work against them.

The greens won't see that with their blinkered view on life. They won't change.

What happens next depends on what labor decides to do about the loss. Examining the labor/green relationship would be a good start.

Are there more votes to be had by concentrating on traditional labor base issues than by pandering to the radical Greens?

Labor's probably gone too far down the path of abandonment of traditional values for that to happen.

Man of the Match award would have to go to Scott Morrison.

Dumb play of the match would have to go to Labor's attempted $387 billion tax grab.

Turning point of the match was in Qld with Bob Brown's dumb caravan incursion into CQ. Local workers abandoned by Labor at both a Federal and State level saw that as the ultimate insult and reacted accordingly. The regional communities of Qld (particularly CQ) are waiting with the same baseball bats they used in the Federal election for the Qld labor govt now that Mr Brown's stupidity has stirred them into action.

Lets hope that the 2 main parties settle down. The electorate wants more stability and predictability than what's been dished up in the last 12 years.
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Ronje

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Re: 2019 Federal election

Post by Matt Flynn » Mon May 20, 2019 7:30 am

While I agree with your election analysis Ron, the folly of the situation will likely become apparent soon. The planet is dropping big hints, especially in the northern hemisphere.

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Re: 2019 Federal election

Post by slug » Mon May 20, 2019 11:49 am

Probably not such a good election to win for the coalition.

I'll be waiting eagerly for how the usual suspects that run the ol chestnut ' the economy always goes backward under a Labour Govt ' react when the economy slides towards depression over the next couple of years as is widely predicted (or certainly softens). My bet is we won't hear a peep from these usual suspects.

And will also be waiting eagerly to see how Frydenberg's budget surplus in this term works out for him - no doubt this will be all forgotten/swept under the carpet as reality bites ....

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Re: 2019 Federal election

Post by ronje » Mon May 20, 2019 2:30 pm

Have a look at this energy company

Infigen. Lost 3% on market today making losses for the year now at 39%.

Infigen has debts of about $450 million. That includes the $650 million loan it got from Goldman Sachs. Guess who was previously managing director for Goldman Sachs Australia? Whose family is the controlling influence behind Infigen?

Infigen has invested hugely in wind turbine technology over the last 6-8 years.

THAT'S why the coalition had to go. An incoming labor govt in partnership with the greens would have created a huge windfall benefit for Infigen. Not likely now.

Matt, one thing that you can be reassured about is that nothing Aus was doing or could have done under Labor or what it might do under the coalition would have changed or will change that ppm figure one little bit. Aus is but a very very small player in the pollution stakes. There's simply no point in destroying Aus lifestyles, its economy and its future by committing social and economic hari-kari over something we can't control.

Slug, I think you're right with that view. Management of the economy has traditionally been a labor demerit issue (big spending) but I'm not so sure that looking after the big end of town/businesses ( as labor calls it) by the coalition has been a vote winner for the coalition either.

The coalition had to change the direction Malcolm Turncoat was taking it in. Malcolm had his reasons for being a covert greenie and it was nothing to do with the good of the planet.

So he had to go. The ironic part is that the very people who gave him the heavo were the very people who loved him so much when they put him in and they're still there. They're as bad as he was.

1-2 years of stability and breathing space to sort out some of society's uncertainties wont go astray.

Whatever else befalls the Aus society, none of it will compare to the disaster of plunging over the cliff with the greens/labor alliance.
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Ronje

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Re: 2019 Federal election

Post by Matt Flynn » Mon May 20, 2019 2:47 pm

Matt, one thing that you can be reassured about is that nothing Aus was doing or could have done under Labor or what it might do under the coalition would have changed or will change that ppm figure one little bit. Aus is but a very very small player in the pollution stakes. There's simply no point in destroying Aus lifestyles, its economy and its future by committing social and economic hari-kari over something we can't control.
Unfortunately that is what every nation is saying, so collectively nothing will be done. People can't budge on economic matters anyway, as we are all stuck in the machine. It's a perfect storm.

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Re: 2019 Federal election

Post by ronje » Mon May 20, 2019 8:17 pm

I'm talking about AUS. We're doing something all right AND meeting our targets under the Paris Agreement. What more are we supposed to do? Throw ourselves under a bus 'cos Russia, India, China and the US aren't doing enough.

Do we agree that Aus contributes bugger all CO2?

Seen this?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... nvironment
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Ronje

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Re: 2019 Federal election

Post by AM » Tue May 21, 2019 10:38 pm

Agree Ronge

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Re: 2019 Federal election

Post by tristan.sloan » Mon May 27, 2019 12:46 pm

My two cents. We all need to do our bit in regards to climate change. I've put solar panels on my house and now I pay $20 a quarter for electric try instead of $500. The economic of renewables speak for themselves.

The argument that we are too small to contribute to change is ridiculous and I for one refuse to use that as the excuse I tell my children as to why my generation has destroyed their future.

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Re: 2019 Federal election

Post by AM » Mon May 27, 2019 6:05 pm

tristan.sloan wrote:My two cents. We all need to do our bit in regards to climate change. I've put solar panels on my house and now I pay $20 a quarter for electric try instead of $500. The economic of renewables speak for themselves.

The argument that we are too small to contribute to change is ridiculous and I for one refuse to use that as the excuse I tell my children as to why my generation has destroyed their future.

Me too what was your main reason environment or save money. Mine was the money no question. Solar panels are a killer on environment to manufacture.

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Re: 2019 Federal election

Post by Matt Flynn » Mon May 27, 2019 7:40 pm

These are familiar arguments, from both sides, that you hear everywhere, and they all lead to the same end - stalemate, or futility.

Few will give an inch on losing convenience, and no one can let go necessities.

By the time people see things that make them say "oh sh.t" it will be too late to fix because of momentum in the system, and feedback loops.

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Re: 2019 Federal election

Post by AM » Mon May 27, 2019 8:07 pm

I don’t see the green side giving to much of there personal convenience. The new climate messiah isn’t errecting any windmills where she live on the beaches. The farmers on the back blocks cop that. They will fly first class in planes not ride their bikes to Canberra or drive electric cars they pay for. But everybody else sure they need to make the change and sacrafice.

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Re: 2019 Federal election

Post by Matt Flynn » Tue May 28, 2019 7:47 am

They will fly first class in planes not ride their bikes to Canberra or drive electric cars they pay for. But everybody else sure they need to make the change and sacrafice.
Probably true.

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