Monsoon gone MIA

Real time reports from FFFers on the things that matter most
User avatar
Matt Flynn
Site Administrator
Site Administrator
Posts: 16187
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 1970 9:30 am
Location: Somewhat Southerly
Contact:

Monsoon gone MIA

Post by Matt Flynn »

From BOM

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/

Australian summer monsoon onset


Excerpt ...

Given the current outlook for the MJO to move away from Australian longitudes, the probability of monsoon onset at Darwin decreases in the next fortnight. However, with the current wind surge over the South China Sea, monsoonal flow extending further over northern Australia cannot be ruled out. The probability of monsoon onset at Darwin is less than 50% based on current forecast information.

The average onset date of the annual Australian summer monsoon at Darwin is the last week of December. The weak El Niño-like conditions, present in recent months, and cool waters off northwest Australia, may have contributed to this season's late onset. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state has previously been shown to modulate timing of the monsoon onset date, with El Niño typically associated with later onsets and La Niña with earlier than normal onset dates.

****

In other words, MIA for now.


User avatar
Sullo
Jedi Seadog
Jedi Seadog
Posts: 504
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:51 pm

Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by Sullo »

https://www.windy.com/-Menu/tools?rain, ... ,m:db5ajEc

Not much on windy to the north of Aus,if Darwin is lucky ex cyclone penny might be over that way next weekend.
User avatar
fish4me123
Seadog
Seadog
Posts: 393
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2010 7:23 am
Location: darwin

Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by fish4me123 »

Yeah it looks like 3 weeks for bubble return. very strange
tight lines
ronje
Jedi Seadog
Jedi Seadog
Posts: 2440
Joined: Sat Feb 14, 2009 5:23 pm
Contact:

Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by ronje »

Regards
Ronje
User avatar
theodosius
Jedi Seadog
Jedi Seadog
Posts: 3258
Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 10:46 pm

Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by theodosius »

Yeeha!
mickkk
Jedi Seadog
Jedi Seadog
Posts: 988
Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2012 9:26 pm

Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by mickkk »

If a monsoon is predicted to start tomorrow, how come windy has predicted a rippa day wind wise?
Is there not normally wind with a monsoon trough?
User avatar
b-radical
Seadog
Seadog
Posts: 251
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 10:08 am
Location: Darwin

Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by b-radical »

Good News
:cheers:
ronje
Jedi Seadog
Jedi Seadog
Posts: 2440
Joined: Sat Feb 14, 2009 5:23 pm
Contact:

Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by ronje »

mickkk wrote:If a monsoon is predicted to start tomorrow, how come windy has predicted a rippa day wind wise?
Is there not normally wind with a monsoon trough?
From Monday according to BOM.

Windy is saying the same thing as BOM. As is Ventusky.

25kmh wind on Sunday morning dropping out to 3-4 kmh Sunday arvo as a "hole" in the wind pattern passes over Darwin from east to west. The hole is predicted to turn into a low pressure system Sunday night just off Darwin as winds rotate back up to 20kmh + by early Monday morning with monsoon trough establishing itself later Sunday night.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
Regards
Ronje
User avatar
Lats
Jedi Seadog
Jedi Seadog
Posts: 3185
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2011 11:27 pm
Location: Marlow Lagoon

Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by Lats »

I hope it's a good one. The one last year in Jan wasn't expected to be the best but it hung around for ages and dumped truck loads on the flood plains. Fingers crossed
User avatar
Matt Flynn
Site Administrator
Site Administrator
Posts: 16187
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 1970 9:30 am
Location: Somewhat Southerly
Contact:

Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by Matt Flynn »

Looks like something is perking up ... http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national ... loop.shtml
NinjaFish
Jedi Seadog
Jedi Seadog
Posts: 888
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:20 am
Location: Darwin

Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by NinjaFish »

We got the edge of it.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Matt Flynn
Site Administrator
Site Administrator
Posts: 16187
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 1970 9:30 am
Location: Somewhat Southerly
Contact:

Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by Matt Flynn »

False alarms.

Still not predicted to start soon ... http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/

From Jan 15 BOM ...

Northern Australia still waiting for monsoon onset

The Australian monsoon has not yet arrived for the 2018-19 season. A weak trough north of Australia is likely to persist through the coming week. If the trough moves south over northern Australia in the coming days, it will likely bring showers and possibly storms. The trough is not expected to deepen significantly and Australian Monsoon onset is unlikely in the coming days. Monsoon onset normally occurs in late December around Darwin. Later than normal onsets are often associated with El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. Tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures exceeded El Niño levels at the end of 2018, but have since receded.

Madden-Julian Oscillation to redevelop over Maritime Continent later this week

The past week saw the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) weaken over the eastern Pacific Ocean. The MJO is currently indiscernible. This means it is unlikely the MJO will influence tropical rainfall at the beginning of this week.

Been regular storms sweeping the catchments though ... http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDD60322/IDD6 ... .plt.shtml
User avatar
fish4me123
Seadog
Seadog
Posts: 393
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2010 7:23 am
Location: darwin

Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by fish4me123 »

I saw that did you see how it cut across Africa. Still week but maybe wet Australia day
tight lines
NinjaFish
Jedi Seadog
Jedi Seadog
Posts: 888
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:20 am
Location: Darwin

Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by NinjaFish »

Maybe. If this prediction comes about and doesn't suck it all away again.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Post Reply
  • Similar Topics
    Replies
    Views
    Last post

Return to “Weather, Roads, Rivers”