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Post Posted: Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:35 pm    Post subject: Monsoon gone MIA

From BOM

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/

Australian summer monsoon onset


Excerpt ...

Given the current outlook for the MJO to move away from Australian longitudes, the probability of monsoon onset at Darwin decreases in the next fortnight. However, with the current wind surge over the South China Sea, monsoonal flow extending further over northern Australia cannot be ruled out. The probability of monsoon onset at Darwin is less than 50% based on current forecast information.

The average onset date of the annual Australian summer monsoon at Darwin is the last week of December. The weak El Niño-like conditions, present in recent months, and cool waters off northwest Australia, may have contributed to this season's late onset. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state has previously been shown to modulate timing of the monsoon onset date, with El Niño typically associated with later onsets and La Niña with earlier than normal onset dates.

****

In other words, MIA for now.

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Post Posted: Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:07 pm    Post subject: Re: Monsoon gone MIA

https://www.windy.com/-Menu/tools?rain, ... ,m:db5ajEc

Not much on windy to the north of Aus,if Darwin is lucky ex cyclone penny might be over that way next weekend.


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Post Posted: Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:31 pm    Post subject: Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Yeah it looks like 3 weeks for bubble return. very strange

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Post Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:29 am    Post subject: Re: Monsoon gone MIA

The monsoon trough has arrived.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

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Post Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:44 am    Post subject: Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Yeeha!


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Post Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:53 am    Post subject: Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Que? ... http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national ... loop.shtml

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Post Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:55 am    Post subject: Re: Monsoon gone MIA

If a monsoon is predicted to start tomorrow, how come windy has predicted a rippa day wind wise?
Is there not normally wind with a monsoon trough?


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Post Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:54 pm    Post subject: Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Good News

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Post Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:57 pm    Post subject: Re: Monsoon gone MIA

mickkk wrote:
If a monsoon is predicted to start tomorrow, how come windy has predicted a rippa day wind wise?
Is there not normally wind with a monsoon trough?


From Monday according to BOM.

Windy is saying the same thing as BOM. As is Ventusky.

25kmh wind on Sunday morning dropping out to 3-4 kmh Sunday arvo as a "hole" in the wind pattern passes over Darwin from east to west. The hole is predicted to turn into a low pressure system Sunday night just off Darwin as winds rotate back up to 20kmh + by early Monday morning with monsoon trough establishing itself later Sunday night.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

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Post Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:19 pm    Post subject: Re: Monsoon gone MIA

I hope it's a good one. The one last year in Jan wasn't expected to be the best but it hung around for ages and dumped truck loads on the flood plains. Fingers crossed

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Post Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:38 pm    Post subject: Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Looks like something is perking up ... http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national ... loop.shtml

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Post Posted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:13 am    Post subject: Re: Monsoon gone MIA

We got the edge of it.


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Post Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:49 am    Post subject: Re: Monsoon gone MIA

False alarms.

Still not predicted to start soon ... http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/

From Jan 15 BOM ...

Northern Australia still waiting for monsoon onset

The Australian monsoon has not yet arrived for the 2018-19 season. A weak trough north of Australia is likely to persist through the coming week. If the trough moves south over northern Australia in the coming days, it will likely bring showers and possibly storms. The trough is not expected to deepen significantly and Australian Monsoon onset is unlikely in the coming days. Monsoon onset normally occurs in late December around Darwin. Later than normal onsets are often associated with El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. Tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures exceeded El Niño levels at the end of 2018, but have since receded.

Madden-Julian Oscillation to redevelop over Maritime Continent later this week

The past week saw the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) weaken over the eastern Pacific Ocean. The MJO is currently indiscernible. This means it is unlikely the MJO will influence tropical rainfall at the beginning of this week.

Been regular storms sweeping the catchments though ... http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDD60322/IDD6 ... .plt.shtml

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Post Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:09 am    Post subject: Re: Monsoon gone MIA

I saw that did you see how it cut across Africa. Still week but maybe wet Australia day

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Post Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:15 am    Post subject: Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Maybe. If this prediction comes about and doesn't suck it all away again.


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