Monsoon gone MIA

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Matt Flynn
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Monsoon gone MIA

Post by Matt Flynn » Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:05 pm

From BOM

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/

Australian summer monsoon onset


Excerpt ...

Given the current outlook for the MJO to move away from Australian longitudes, the probability of monsoon onset at Darwin decreases in the next fortnight. However, with the current wind surge over the South China Sea, monsoonal flow extending further over northern Australia cannot be ruled out. The probability of monsoon onset at Darwin is less than 50% based on current forecast information.

The average onset date of the annual Australian summer monsoon at Darwin is the last week of December. The weak El Niño-like conditions, present in recent months, and cool waters off northwest Australia, may have contributed to this season's late onset. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state has previously been shown to modulate timing of the monsoon onset date, with El Niño typically associated with later onsets and La Niña with earlier than normal onset dates.

****

In other words, MIA for now.



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Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by Sullo » Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:37 pm

https://www.windy.com/-Menu/tools?rain, ... ,m:db5ajEc

Not much on windy to the north of Aus,if Darwin is lucky ex cyclone penny might be over that way next weekend.

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Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by fish4me123 » Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:01 pm

Yeah it looks like 3 weeks for bubble return. very strange
tight lines

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Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by ronje » Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:59 am

Regards
Ronje

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Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by theodosius » Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:14 am

Yeeha!


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Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by mickkk » Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:25 am

If a monsoon is predicted to start tomorrow, how come windy has predicted a rippa day wind wise?
Is there not normally wind with a monsoon trough?

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Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by b-radical » Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:24 pm

Good News
Everydays a good day when your fishing

FOMOB

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Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by ronje » Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:27 pm

mickkk wrote:If a monsoon is predicted to start tomorrow, how come windy has predicted a rippa day wind wise?
Is there not normally wind with a monsoon trough?
From Monday according to BOM.

Windy is saying the same thing as BOM. As is Ventusky.

25kmh wind on Sunday morning dropping out to 3-4 kmh Sunday arvo as a "hole" in the wind pattern passes over Darwin from east to west. The hole is predicted to turn into a low pressure system Sunday night just off Darwin as winds rotate back up to 20kmh + by early Monday morning with monsoon trough establishing itself later Sunday night.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
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Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by Lats » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:49 pm

I hope it's a good one. The one last year in Jan wasn't expected to be the best but it hung around for ages and dumped truck loads on the flood plains. Fingers crossed


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Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by NinjaFish » Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:43 am

We got the edge of it.
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Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by Matt Flynn » Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:19 am

False alarms.

Still not predicted to start soon ... http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/

From Jan 15 BOM ...

Northern Australia still waiting for monsoon onset

The Australian monsoon has not yet arrived for the 2018-19 season. A weak trough north of Australia is likely to persist through the coming week. If the trough moves south over northern Australia in the coming days, it will likely bring showers and possibly storms. The trough is not expected to deepen significantly and Australian Monsoon onset is unlikely in the coming days. Monsoon onset normally occurs in late December around Darwin. Later than normal onsets are often associated with El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. Tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures exceeded El Niño levels at the end of 2018, but have since receded.

Madden-Julian Oscillation to redevelop over Maritime Continent later this week

The past week saw the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) weaken over the eastern Pacific Ocean. The MJO is currently indiscernible. This means it is unlikely the MJO will influence tropical rainfall at the beginning of this week.

Been regular storms sweeping the catchments though ... http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDD60322/IDD6 ... .plt.shtml

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Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by fish4me123 » Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:39 am

I saw that did you see how it cut across Africa. Still week but maybe wet Australia day
tight lines

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Re: Monsoon gone MIA

Post by NinjaFish » Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:45 am

Maybe. If this prediction comes about and doesn't suck it all away again.
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