The one that got away

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ronje
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Re: The one that got away

Post by ronje »

Mortality rate in Hubei province has risen to 3.1%.

Rest of mainland China has a mortality rate of .7%

So China's strict isolation policy of making everybody stay home seems to be starting to have a positive effect.

That success comes at an eventual high price to China's economy with very little production and export of goods being undertaken 'cos nobody is allowed to go to work.

Success in starting to curb the infection rate is great news for the general Chinese population though.

Just imagine how it is living basically in isolation with food delivered by people decked out in medical suits to avoid possible contamination from YOU.

All the while knowing that there's an invisible "monster" stalking the neighbourhood somewhere beyond the door.

bl..dy awful way to have to live.

Japanese invasion, 2nd World War, civil war, cultural revolution, self-imposed international isolation, rule by dictator with his little red book as "bible" , oppression at every turn and still living within a divided country (mainland China, Taipei and Hong Kong).

You've gotta take your hat off to the general Chinese population for resilience.

Longer term effects of coronavirus on economy might slow down the militaristic ambitions of the rulers a bit. History seems to show that ambitions of the people run a poor second to ambitions of rulers in these types of situations.


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Matt Flynn
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Re: The one that got away

Post by Matt Flynn »

Interestingly, the USA isn't testing widely for coronavirus.

Have a look at the attached flu map. The USA is having a helluva flu season. Map link is here ... https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/main.html#a27

Story here ... https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/over-100- ... in-the-us/

Here is a Google link to a search for "student flu deaths 2020", flu is killing healthy young people ... https://www.google.com.au/search?sxsrf= ... CAc&uact=5

Good year for flu vaccinations. At least you knock one of these two bugs on the head.

But given USA is not testing, how do they know some of these flu cases aren't coronavirus?
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ronje
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Re: The one that got away

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But given USA is not testing, how do they know some of these flu cases aren't coronavirus?

Hard to believe that they wouldn't be testing, Matt. The infra red temp probe to the skull is simply an early warning signal for further testing. Like a roadside alcotest just gives coppers grounds for full machine test.

I'd say that the big jump in flu cases is actually due to increased flu testing (increased testing due to fear of coronavirus) is throwing up cases of flu that normally would not be picked up.

People not in the high risk age categories for flu and who previously chose to ride it out at home are now getting flu tests done (just in case it's not).

I don't know what other tests looking for symptoms of coronarvirus are then done.

Mortality rate in mainland Chine at 3.9% now. Rest of world still .6%

Infection rate in mainland China has now levelled out and is not increasing. The 2 week lag in death or clearance numbers is give a higher apparent (but false) death rate. It'll drop again as more of those infected (and currenly "in limbo") recover.

The lag rate is called hysteresis. Its not a new super bug.
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Re: The one that got away

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The USA had only tested a few hundred by the time South Korea had tested 28,000.

Now South Korea is testing hundreds of thousands ... https://www.businessinsider.com.au/sout ... &r=US&IR=T

USA is only just starting now ... https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/24/2114 ... ng-testing

Also, USA has hugely expensive health cover - anyone who wants a test has to fork out so much they will avoid doing so. Even with insurance it currently costs a motza in the USA. The land of the free may be about to discover a huge weakness in its health system.

While this disease may not have a huge death rate it is leaving some people with lung damage.

Doctor John Campbell has a good YouTube channel ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZ_rCe2K0PM
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Re: The one that got away

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USA's CDC now says it's a pandemic ... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/us-heal ... demic.html

And Australia ... https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/healt ... 052e836aa0

People not happy with the WHO's slow response to calling this what it is.

The latest figures from Hubei, the epicentre. Tested positive cases = 64,786. Of those, 2563 are dead. There are 7090 serious, which likely means they need oxygen. There are 1585 critical, which means they need a ventilator.

Ventilators and trained ventilator support nurses are in short supply at the best of times.

I'd also bet on the Australian authorities reacting too slowly with getting the needed gear in, or having trouble sourcing it now. What's the bet some of it, including medicines, is made in China?

Certainly not optimistic about the Tasmanian health system's ability to handle it. At times they can hardly handle what they've got normally.

Share markets are now factoring it all in.

This video is the Iranian deputy health minister, he caught the coronavirus ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3A3C1BGnEQ

All that said, current flu season seems far worse in the USA, so far.
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Re: The one that got away

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Might be a vaccine in the pipeline ... https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/tex ... us-vaccine

Sounds a bit dodgy ...
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Re: The one that got away

Post by ronje »

As I understand it, having a vaccine approved takes longer than manufacturing it so a vaccine will probably be several months away.

The graph on the lower RHS is the one to watch.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

The orange line(confirmed infections) is levelling and the green line (recoveries) is getting steeper.

The closer those two lines get to each other, the better. Its really only an indicator of the spread rate and the success (or otherwise) of any isolation/quarantine measures put in place.

Expect the mortality rate in mainland China to rise slightly due to the 2 week lag. Its been up to 3.9% for that reason and is now sitting a bit better at 3.5% as the lag starts to diminish.

Those measures have been having success in mainland China but have been pretty extreme I believe.

South Korea is a bit of a worry with some sort of secretive religious group at the centre of the outbreak there.

And not a peep out of our neighbour Indonesia with a few hundred million people.

Stock markets are based on confidence and they have suddenly woken up to the implications of the increasing threat to trade that comes with China's quarantine arrangements.

The time for shifting to defensive stocks was 1-2 weeks ago to minimize losses. I think that the US market was headed for a correction anyway (10% drop). Up popped Coronavirus to give a coincidence of negative thoughts and down went the US market. That means the rest of the world as well.
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Re: The one that got away

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To refer back to the red flu map posted earlier, this post and comments ... https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheory/statu ... 7804802048

If you don't want to click the link, a USA patient has been discovered with the disease but they didn't test the person for a week, so all the healthcare workers would have been exposed, not to mention the patient was in late stages when admitted so has probably had it for a while and exposed many. The patient was only tested because he or she went critical.

Patient had no obvious link to China etc.

The comments say the USA CDC refuses to test unless patients fit their guidelines, so flu patients with CoVir could be slipping through, like this one has.

Probably will be a rash of USA diagnoses now.

Australia has been sitting on 23 cases for days, hard to believe, hopefully the good luck continues.

I am not posting on this any more, time for some run-off fishing posts, Seadogs, Fotofish etc ... far better things to do than worry about germs, keeping in mind there is a need for taking precautions now, what goes around comes around.
ronje
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Re: The one that got away

Post by ronje »

I am not posting on this any more, time for some run-off fishing posts,

Fair enough. So am I.

I think that when all this settles down, this virus will be better remembered for the effects of quarantine practices on world commerce and trade supply chains than its had on the health of people.
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Re: The one that got away

Post by NinjaFish »

:bs:

You fellas must be getting itchy by now.

Somethings gotta pop soon. :rofl:
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Re: The one that got away

Post by Matt Flynn »

I am quietly waiting for you to post a fish :D
ronje
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Re: The one that got away

Post by ronje »

Some fool lost our FFF stickers so we can't even register yet.

Between the three of us, got some barra up to 96cm and small king @ 85cm in the last week but can't enter anything yet.

One our guys is off to South Africa next week working a contract. Working 4w on and 1w off roster. Long way to fly home every 4 weeks but he's gunna do it.

Is there a category for Zambezi tiger fish?

Surely we could squeeze in a nile perch or two in the barramundi section. Its just up the road from SA.
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Re: The one that got away

Post by Matt Flynn »

Barra to 96cm will give the NT boys a run.

One more comment on da bug. Developments over the past month show it is not "just the flu" nor is it the end of the world. It is definitely bad news for older folk. Italy just lost 41 people, the youngest was 66.

There will probably be some sort of lockdowns/closures in Australia as this progresses, eg schools, to slow the spread so that hospitals aren't swamped by people needing oxygen treatment etc.

That's why people are buying supplies, although apparently a TV station said all bog roll was made in China and would run out, but it's not made in China. It ran out anyway because of the news story :lol:

It isn't the end if you are young, or middle aged and healthy. For the rest, it may soon be wise to be camping on the Daly, or somewhere else in the remote north, away from other people :catch:

That said, a 101-year-old survived it, he is obviously made of aeroplane black box material ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82DqPw-7q4M
ronje
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Re: The one that got away

Post by ronje »

Not going to be tempted about "the virus".

Plenty of big barra around at moment with spawning winding up but mostly down @ river mouth.

Spawning's been good with 3 discernible separate occasions. Recruitment patchy due to lack of flooding in river. Little local run-off for recruitment but looking good for next couple of weeks with rain. Maybe major flood from upstream.

Recent catches of big barra in the river of 2 @ 140, 3 @ 130, some @ 120 or better, plenty at 100 and stacks of 70s and 90s. Not as many in 80s size. Mostly down river.

30s, 40s and 50s in shorter supply due to paucity of recruitment opportunity. They've been forced to stay in river and get predated upon.

Few smallish king 85-100 and a couple to 120 ( 1 @ 160 reported. Not confirmed but that'd be a decent arm wrestle). May/June then Sept is big king time. Then they bugger off to breed in October.

Will send in registrations when I get the stickers (if I haven't found where I cunningly concealed the previous ones).
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Re: The one that got away

Post by Matt Flynn »

A 130 or 140 will be a first for the brag mat comp, don't post them too early, might scare people :)
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