Global warming

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ronje
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Global warming

Post by ronje » Fri Aug 04, 2017 7:18 am

Agree with Jeno (in another thread) about the lack of effective energy policies.

Here's my 2 bob's worth about changing climate.

Aus govt has been stampeded into the theory that changes in climate have been exacerbated by man and that man needs to "do something" aimed at fixing the problem.

Climate on earth has been changing for the last 4 billion years and by far greater amounts than those pointed at in the last 25 years by the scientific community.

Tunnel vision enthusiasts who choose to ignore the wider effects at play. These guys are taking a snapshot in time and trying to relate it to something within that snapshot as the cause of change.

Earth's weather (and in the longer term climate) changes due to changes in the earth itself.

Our climate and seasons are dictated by the Sun and the physical relationship between the earth and sun.

The 2 main factors that influence that physical relationship are angle of the earth's axis wrt its orbit around the sun ( obliquity) and the current position of the earth in its "axis wobble" cycle (precession).

Obliquity cycles take 41,000 years and precession cycles take 26,000 years and both operate at the same time.

Effectively both influence the angle/lean of the earth's axis.

Below is my side of an exchange about the GBR.

I decided to chase this stuff up after the hullabooloo about coral bleaching effects.

Ron

You will probably be up on this already.

If not, some info for you.

The GBR has an estimated age of between 500,000 years and 100,000 years depending on who you talk to.

Its undergone many changes and its current form is the result of the latest changes 5000 - 10000 years ago brought about by the results of earth's continuing changes in climate.

There are 4 influences that determine how significant those changes are and the rate at which they occur.

They are best described as the Milankovitch Cycle.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQSHxY5ZR6

Changes due to combination effects in the earth's obliquity, precession, orbital eccentricity and insolation have a profound effect on the both the amount of solar radiation received on the earth's surface (insolation) and where its received.

In respect of the GBR, the greatest impacts are the results of changes in obliquity (lean or angle) of the earth's axis compared to the plane of the earth's orbit around the sun.

The present obliquity is 23.4 degrees and that's what gives us our seasons.  

The lean/angle varies from 22.1 degrees to a max of 24.5 degrees and the lines traced on the earth's surface by those extremes are called the Tropic of Capricorn and the Tropic of Cancer.  Currently the obliquity is 23.4 degrees and is heading towards 22.1 degrees (becoming more vertical to the plane of orbit around the sun.  That means approaching changes to earth's seasons over time.

That being so, both tropics are on the move towards the equator.  The current rate is 14m per year.

This obliquity cycle is 41,000 years.  In the case of the tropics they move towards the equator for 20,500 years and then move away from the equator for 21,500 years.

For the Tropic of Capricorn, the southernmost point reached on Qld's coastline is Baffle Creek (north of Bundaberg) about that happened about 8,000 years ago. (24.5 degrees obliquity).

The northernmost point is Clairview near Sarina (22.1 degrees obliquity) and that will be reached in about 12,000 years from now.

Currently at 23.4 degrees, the Tof C is about 4 km south of Rockhampton and heading north @ 14 m per year.

The total distance between extremes is 265 km for Capricorn.

Similarly its 265 km for Cancer.

So the " Torrid Zone " (area between tropics) is reduced by a width of 530 km around the earth every 20,500 years

This means that the amount of solar radiation hitting the earth's spinning axis (equator) is much higher and is marginally more vertical at the equator and less vertical north and south of the tropics. 

In the now narrower equatorial belt, the temperature will rise in that belt over the next 12,000 years until the tropics are at their closest then the temp will start to fall as they move away.

Between the tropics (the compressed area where the temps will increase over the next 12,000 years) is where the GBR is located.  So expect much more coral bleaching over time.

12,000 years from now the GBR will have changed in form as it already has every 41,000 years in its lifetime.

When the obliquity reaches its maximum of 25.5 degrees, the torrid zone is much wider and the angle at which the sun's energy rays strike earth is shallower and therefore spread out more.  Less heating.

At/near that end of the 41,000 year cycle, we have cooling and hence ice-ages.

So both claims of earth warming and earth cooling are correct.  The only difference is at which stage of the 41,000 year cycle one is referring to.

Man's capacity to understand the causes and effect of obliquity and warming/cooling associated with climate change has only been possible in the last 5,000 - 6,000 years.  As a result, there has been no meaningful understanding of a full 41,000 year cycle.

So, are manmade activities of sufficient significance to have any impact as claimed?  How does anything done by mankind in the last 2000 years compare to what climate changes the earth inflicts on itself?

It obviously doesn't.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZD8THEz18gc


That 41,000 year obliquity cycle has impressed upon it another (smaller) set of cyclic variations (25,000 year cycle) called precession which have minor effects on the obliquity cycle.

The extremes of climate occur when the effects of the 4 main climate change drivers line up to produce either max temperatures on earth of minimum temperatures on earth (glacial periods).  About the centre of the attached link.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQSHxY5ZR6w
regards[/img]
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Regards
Ronje

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Matt Flynn
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Re: Global warming

Post by Matt Flynn » Fri Aug 04, 2017 8:23 am

Excellent post Ron, although I disagree with some of it.

I have put this topic on a new thread so we don't hijack the Alvey thread :D

The sun is currently going through a quiet cycle, yet temps increase. The speed of change likely beats anything in the historic record.

And it's not just warming, but global pollution and resource pressure that grows.

Not a big problem yet, hence we can argue, but by the time it becomes a big problem it will be too late to fix the ongoing warming aspect from "legacy" CO2, hence the need for meaningful change now if we aren't too dump a broken world on future generations.

I doubt sufficient change can be implemented under current social systems. We need a new social system for a world where energy is expensive and jobs are fewer. Democratic governments would be voted out if they brought in meaningful laws that could make a difference, because of the huge cost.

Also, it requires a co-ordinated global effort. A true global effort is unlikely until parts of New York are under water, by then too late to do anything without further severe climate change.

My understanding is that nuclear power is the only "clean" alternative to provide sufficient power to sustain current cheap energy lifestyles.

Bottom line, party on!

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Re: Global warming

Post by nomad » Fri Aug 04, 2017 9:07 am

20 years ago, 3 various worldwide surveys were taken asking what concerned people the most. It wasn’t job security, personal safety or war. The vast majority of people were worried about the threats to the environment. (the results really surprised many people)

There has always been climate change. The biggest issue is the speed of the current changes.
The levels of co2 being pumped up there must have some effect.

Even if little old Oz stopped producing every bit of co2 immediately, it will have very little affect globally. China pumps out more co2 in just 3 of its large power stations that the whole of oz.

Oz makes gazillions from coal export and vast numbers of people work in the industry. So many people in powerful places have vested interests in coal that there is no way it will stop until the last bit of coal is dug up.

Renewables will eventually be the only way the world produces power but by then it will be too late.

The earth does have amazing powers of recovery but I fear this will put it to the test.
I worked in the environment industry and the issues were really well explained to me by those scientists. Of course, there are scientists who don’t believe we are in trouble, but they are very few (Some of those same scientists explained to me why we should never eat oysters. I stopped eating them for several months but reverted back to my old ways after that)


Day to day life takes up most people’s thoughts and they cant/don’t want to even think about the end of the world. As long as they have a job, roof over their head and food on the table, life is sweet.

A major issue like climate change is just too hard and is something that is for others to work out.

I used to be concerned by the change but now, like everyone else who is trying to get by on a day to day basis, I honestly don’t give a rats.

Its all about me and as long as it doesn’t directly affect me, i'm ok with that. By the time the changes really kick in, my decaying remains will be just another cause the problem.

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Re: Global warming

Post by Jeno » Fri Aug 04, 2017 9:12 am

We are all doomed!

Earth is the host, man is the virus!
The host will eventually rid itself of the virus in order to survive or the virus will destroy the host to such a point that the host can longer sustain the virus....and the virus will perish!

We are all doomed!
No matter where you go, there you are!

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Re: Global warming

Post by Matt Flynn » Fri Aug 04, 2017 9:50 am

We are all doomed!
Hey, I didn't even eat the salmon mousse ...

It's not us who are doomed, it's those 200 years down the track, starting with those living in already marginal climate areas. Future folk will look back at us like we were idiots.

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Re: Global warming

Post by NBN » Fri Aug 04, 2017 1:58 pm

I completed my Environmental Science Degree back in the mid 90's. I am yet to form a firm view on Climate Change. My crude interpretation is parroting Newton; every action has an equal or opposite reaction. If we pump more CO2 into the atmosphere than we have done in recorded history then something will happen, something will change. I look at the work undertaken on the Vostok Ice cores which date back circa 350K years (if you believe in the interpretive science) where temp levels mimic levels of CO2, that is; CO2 goes up and temp soon follows and visa versa. OR is is the other way around.... increased temps lead to increases in CO2 concentrations ......
Before taking on a gypsy lifestyle last year I spent 4 years working with a group of farmers to increase their soil carbon levels. Never before had a more staunch bunch of climate change sceptics been assembled in the same room! Their initial interest was in the potential to trade carbon credits from the 'sequestered carbon'. But thanks to convoluted methodologies this soon became highly unlikely for the group. We pressed on and delivered some outstanding results. By increasing soil carbon levels productivity increased but profitability increased significantly on the back of lower inputs. The other great outcome was improving resilience in the landscape/catchment. Increased soil moisture at depth meant an increased ability to hold on longer and recover quicker from dry spells.
The action of the government wanting to tackle climate change facilitated farmers improving their soils.
There are some excellent things happening in the world on the back of climate change, intended or not.
Again, if you trust the science, we are in uncharted territory with CO2 concentrations surpassing 400ppm in our atmosphere. We actually don't know what will happen, maybe nothing much....maybe plenty.
Take home message: if you are weighing up whether to go for a fish this weekend, GO!

:mrgreen:


ronje
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Re: Global warming

Post by ronje » Sun Aug 06, 2017 7:09 pm

Matt
What do you mean by "The sun is currently going through a quiet cycle, yet temps increase."

The earth's temp will increase over the next few thousand years by up to 4 centigrade degrees and its got nothing to do with how the sun behaves.

Those temp increases are due solely to what changes the earth is currently going though. The earths relationship with the sun isn't static.

Its changing over periods of time ( much longer time-frames than what mankind is attempting to quantify).

Interplanetary changes aren't a quantifiable science. Indicators such as temp increases etc may be quantifiable but its the reason for those changes that isn't quantifiable.

They are qualitative and hence not a definable science.

If you want to work backwards from an answer to a particular cause (which is what science has been doing for a number of years) then of course you'll find a connection.

All you've got to do then is work out which is the cause. What you've found (or would like to find to suit your theory) or something else.

What I'm saying is that mankind has found a cause the appears to show that mankind is responsible for and therefore about which mankind can do something. "Mankind isn't helpless" stuff ignoring just how helpless about interplanetary matters mankind really is.

That's completely at odds with the way that earth has evolved over 4 billion years.

using that same illogical theory, the dinosaurs can say that too much climate change by virtue of the build up of CO2/methane (CH4) in earths atmosphere (dinosaurs breaking wind) causing atmospheric change was the cause of their extinction.

The claims have already been made about cattle farting all over the world and being yet another underlying cause. Gimme a break!!

We know it was a comet/asteroid collision with earth. Had the current crop of mankind been around then, they'd have been warning about the dangerous build-up of gases in the earth's atmosphere from dinosaurs was a foreteller of doom and when doom did indeed visit, then the dinosaurs were to blame. " We told you so" was meaningless because who was left to argue? In the meantime were there dinosaurs running around with plugs in their bums or on herbaceous diets?

So, does mankind actually think that any of its activities can impact on the effects of changes caused by inter-planetary relationship machinations?

Its presumptuous and an inflated belief of the importance or relevance of the role of mankind in the evolution of earth.

Mankind is simply a passenger on the earth's Evolution Express not a driver.

Earth's been evolving for 4 billion years and if we think that the effect of mankind over the last 1000 years has had an effect, we're way off track.

1000 years in 4,000 million years is not very long. .000005% of the life of earth.

And to be responsible for such dramatic earthly change in that short period of time. Do you really think so?

In the words of Darryl Kerrigan " Tell 'em they're dreaming".
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Ronje

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Re: Global warming

Post by Matt Flynn » Sun Aug 06, 2017 7:59 pm

Hope you are right Ron. And if you are, and it does not happen as has been outlined by the models etc, no one will believe the scientific community again about anything important.

But I suspect simple cause and effect will rule. The gas graphs alone are impressive.

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Re: Global warming

Post by ronje » Mon Aug 07, 2017 6:30 am

no one will believe the scientific community again about anything important.

I think that's already happened, Matt. BOM is a good example.

This "mankind is the cause of global warming" and what's flowed from it is the last straw for many.

To have different opinions about something is a good thing.

To have 1 opinion hijack a debate is not a good thing. History is full of examples.
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Re: Global warming

Post by dannett » Mon Aug 07, 2017 1:57 pm

I think that the argument that Ronje has put forward has been very overlooked int he reporting of global warming. The certainly is a lot of scientific facts that back this argument too. One of the greatest examples is the Sahara Desert which used to be a tropical oasis full of jungles. The infiltration of the desert precedes the industrial age and can not be attributed to the man made global change. This is due primarily to the Milankovitch Cycle and it is expected that in 40,000 years time that the jungles may return when the conditions are right.

I do however think it would naive to say that man has not had an impact on global warming and destruction of natural habitats. Never before has the world seen such change other than perhaps from isolated asteroidal impacts.

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Re: Global warming

Post by AM » Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:25 pm

Mat good choice relocating this off my Alvey thread. One of your best!!!

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Re: Global warming

Post by Matt Flynn » Tue Aug 08, 2017 4:30 pm

It's a funny world ...

Commonwealth Bank being sued for not mentioning climate change ... http://www.news.com.au/finance/business ... 069d9e3237

Trump Government moving to ban use of phrase "climate change" ... http://www.news.com.au/technology/envir ... b5ebcb0b9d

When the Arctic ice cap is gone, will people explain it away as natural variability?

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Re: Global warming

Post by nomad » Tue Aug 08, 2017 5:58 pm

I honestly think that people cant bring themselves to even contemplate the possibility of climate change and the outcomes – so they choose to just ignore it hoping that ‘the govt’ will fix it.
I heard someone saying that “look at all of the fuss they made about Y2K computer problem and nothing happened”
I reminded them that many plans were put into place to prevent it - and it worked. Nothing is in place to stop the change
.
Too many people take too much notice of radio shock jocks


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