Global warming

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NinjaFish
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Re: Global warming

Post by NinjaFish » Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:09 am

I did read somewhere a while ago that pilots used to set their compass to true North every 28 days and are now resetting or checking every 7 days. Definitely something going on if that's the case. I remember after the 2011 Fukushima earthquake on our next trip through the Carrington the trail was 10-20 ft off on the chart and showed that we should be up on the banks. Faulty sounder?

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Re: Global warming

Post by Matt Flynn » Wed Aug 22, 2018 5:24 pm

They are saying AGW will lead to some big wet seasons so it is not all bad. But it will affect everywhere. Tassie has had fires up on the plateau, not recorded before apparently, and kelp beds are disappearing. I suspect there will be more/worse fires in the south with the heat/dry/wind combo.


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Re: Global warming

Post by ronje » Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:51 am

In the overall scheme of changes in the earth's climate, "old science" of 100 years vintage is but a blink of the eye.

One complete Milankovic cycle takes 42,000 years to pass. We're currently about 1 quarter way through 1 cycle.

In Aus terms the Tropic of Capricorn has moved north from its southernmost point by about 200 km. Another 200 km and 10,000 years to go until the TOC reaches its closest point of proximity to the equator.
Meanwhile the Tropic of Cancer (northern hemisphere) is also travelling south towards the equator at the same rate as the earth's axis continues to head towards vertical.
The "torrid zone" (the area between the 2 tropics) will then be 800km narrower therefore the average temperate in that zone will certainly rise.

And what's in that zone of increased temperature that we Aussies use as an alarm bell to measure changes by? The Great Barrier Reef.

The GBR is about 500,000 years old so has passed through several changing temperature ages where its died off.

Currently, its latest form is about 8,000 - 10,000 years of growth over about 10 layers of dead reef and the earth is heading into the warmer period of the cycle (about 20,000 years of it) so the GBR will most certainly die off over the next 10,000 years.

As the earth reaches the point where its the closest to vertical that its going to get, the warming effect will cease (in 10,000 years).
As the earth straightens, the frozen polar zones also are exposed more to the sun and temperatures will indeed increase in the ice belt zones of north and south poles. Ice melt increases.


One more effect of the Milankovic cycles is that earth's magnetc poles also change as the position of the earth in the sun's electromagnetic radiation belt also changes. How significant is that?


Any spinning metal body (iron core of the earth- molten or not) in an electromagnetic field has electromagnetic fields (emf) induced in it that produces magnetic poles.
The earth is iron (therefore magnetic). Its spinning in an electromagnetic field (from the sun). It has electromagnetic lines of force that produces magnetic poles (north and south) through the earth's core.


You can find the direction of those induced poles by the use of a device that reacts to the earth's emf by pointing at 1 pole or the other. North magnetic pole or south magnetic pole.
Opposites attract in magnetism so to find the direction of the north magnetic pole, one must use a device that has a north-seeking magnetic pole in one end of it.


That device is called a magnetic compass and its north -seeking pointer turns to point at the north magnetic pole. Called magnetic north.


Magnetic north is in Hudson Bay Canada. True (or map north) is at the north pole.


Bit confusing? Can be if you throw in that pointer in a magnetic compass is NOT a north magnet. Its actually a "south magnet pole" even though it may have N indicated on it in some way or other.


So how can that be? Well opposite magnetic poles attract via the magnetic lines of force that join them so the pointer is actually a south magnet. Here comes the confusion.


Its stamped N or north so how come its actually south?


Well, to avoid having to sort out the confusion thus generated, science decided to call it a north-seeking magnetic device . A north-seeking device is simply a euphemism or politically correct term for a south magnetic pole. Politically correct speak has been around for a long, long time before it became fashionable.


In explaining to people wanting to learn navigation about the differnces between true north (arctic pole) and magnetic north (Hudson Bay), I had to resort to saying that true north was where Santa Claus lived and magnetic north was where the compass bunny lived.


They all understood the difference then.


For you guys who have looked at/worked with maritime charts and calculated trip bearings/directions from them, you would/should have come across the term magnetic variation along with the note that the variation was changing by so many chart "minutes/seconds per year". Ever wondered why it was varying each year?

Its because the position of the induced magnetic pole is changing each year.


And why is that?


Because the "lean" of the earth's axis is changing and consequently the earth's induced magnetic field is changing. As a result the location of induced north magnetic pole is changing.


Changes in "lean" of the earth's axis is the subject of ....................................Milankovich cycle study. So the effect is real alright.

Changing of the angular relationship between the earth's axis and the sun's radiation passage has very significant changes on earth. The true north and south poles wont change location on the earth but they both will change in relation to the distance from the sun and the angle at which the sun's radiation strikes them.

Shallow angle of incidence reflects heat and higher angle of incidence is less reflection so increased warming at both places (even though other places may be experencing decreased temperatures).

None of this stuff is witchcraft or "smoke-and-mirrors" even though some of the doom and gloom brigade see an advantage in frightening people into a reaction of some kind.

I'm not suggesting that global climate change isn't happening. It sure is and its been happening since the earth was formed.

My argument is that mankind's activities are not the main cause and therefore panic concentration on an "insurance" basis isn't any kind of effective answer.

Electromagnetic radiation has far more impact on earthlings' activities than most people realise. It produces colour. It affects health. It impacts on man's activities (including fishing). Navigation. Communications (including satellites). Weather. Climate.

Any change in that radiation changes ALL of the above.

Can be pretty heavy stuff, eh.
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Ronje

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Re: Global warming

Post by Matt Flynn » Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:54 am

Have a look through this forum Ron ... https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/

All the climate change action is up in the Arctic. Huge changes in the Bering Sea, acknowledged by both pro fishermen and researchers, fish stocks moving into new areas, possibly explaining an observed huge decline in seabirds as capelin and sand lance are hammered by newly arrived swarms of cod and pollock.

My understanding of the current solar situation is that we are in a period of low solar output and therefore the earth should be cooling.

Good explanation, got a feeling the gloomers might be right tho ...

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Re: Global warming

Post by NinjaFish » Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:15 am

Heavy stuff alright.

Thanks for the effort and explanation Ron. Very well explained.

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Re: Global warming

Post by Matt Flynn » Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:19 pm

Enjoying the discussion, good to see some serious input on the subject instead of the usual cussing!

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Re: Global warming

Post by ronje » Sat Aug 25, 2018 6:04 am

The sun goes through 11 year cycles of activity where radiation waxes and wanes with predictability. The cycle is monitored by an organisation called the Ionispheric Prediction Service. IPS prediction charts are used for calculating optimum frequencies for H/F long range radiocommunication services. The cyclic pattern determines what happens in earth's ionosphere which consists of a number of layers of ionisation. These layers undergo daily changes as well as the main cyclic changes. As the earth rotates, the ionisation changes between night and day. During daylight, the sun's ionising "rays" are at their maximum and the layers form closer to the earth's surface.

The layers are identified with different names like E, F, F1 etc.

HF radio waves reflect off the layers and are bent back towards earth. Its actually refraction but most find simple reflection as easier to understand. The higher the layer above the earth, the greater the distance before the radio wave travels before coming back to earth.

That form of HF communication is called skywave. Signal projected up in air.

So to get long range during the day (maximum layer formation at lower altitudes), a radio wave needs to penetrate the lower layers to get to the higher layers. Only higher HF frequencies can do that. lower frequencies can't penetrate and are reflected and absorbed so don't make it back. These lower frequencies can only communicate via the wave sent along the ground where its eventually absorbed. Strangely enough, its called a groundwave.

THAT band of freqs is where you find the MF radio stations. 8RN- Darwin, 2GB -Sydney, 4RK - Rockhampton etc etc. What you will notice is that the ABC MF radio stations mainly occupy the lower end of that band to give more service coverage per transmitter during the day. They are also higher powered than commercial stations to increase service area further.

At night everything changes. Less ionisation, lower layers disappear and MF broadcast signals reach the higher layers to be reflected and can reach hundreds of km instead of the usual daylight range of 100km or so. These signals fade in and out due to interaction between the skywave and the groundwave.

The rule of thumb for long range HF communication is to "follow the sun" with frequency choice. The higher the sun in the sky, the higher your choice of frequency. 8 - 10 MHz is a pretty good choice during the day. The lower the sun towards the horizon, the lower the freq choice should be.


All I was trying to do with the above was to demonstrate just how much effect ionising radiation from the sun has on even simple earthly activities. Within that 11 year sun cycle of increasing/decreasing sunspot activities (solar flares) the amount of sun radiation varies considerably. At peak times that radiation can obliterate communications on earth. I've never looked to see if the incidence of skin cancer is linked to the 11 year sun cycle. I'd guess that it is though. Good material for a government grant to research? (probably already done).

Sun radiation also contains ultraviolet frequencies which can be so harmful to health and break down the structure of objects (like plastic). And that's despite earth's protective coating of ozone. Put yourself in a satellite or space station outside of earth's protective ozone layer and think about the effect of that UV and methods needed to protect astronauts and equipment.

I was working in Sydney Olympic Stadium on opening night of the games in 2000 and looking at the amount of electromagnetc radiation generated within the confined area on a special device that gives a visual display of the invisible radiation waves. Absolutely enourmous amount of EMR and ALL of it had to be allocated and managed to minimize interactions during the ceremony on the "world stage".

It was radiation from a device that had been "smuggled in" that caused the cauldron malfunction where Kathy Freeman nearly got roasted. THAT device had to be found very quickly in a sea of 100,000 people. But that's another story. Some people noticed the "glitch" but most didn't. Kathy and people in the cauldron's proximity certainly did.

My money wrt climate change is on the Milankovich cycles.
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Re: Global warming

Post by NinjaFish » Sun Aug 26, 2018 8:32 am

I always knew from my Codan radio days that night was better than day but could never understand why some days differed from others. I now understand why UHF also reached up to 80 km's from hill tops without repeaters at night and only up to 30 during daylight.

Great reading Ron.

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Re: Global warming

Post by ronje » Sun Aug 26, 2018 8:45 pm

Thanks NinjaFish.

Its difficult to explain some of this stuff where what being explained is invisible, can't be contained within a boundary and travels with the speed of light.

I'll stop the electromagnetic radiation stuff there. Radiocommunications is simply generating EMR under specific circumstances and controlling it to achieve different things.

Has a lighter side at times.

Once had to visit a person who was hearing voices in head without radio or anything. Met me at door with head wrapped in alfoil acting as an EMR shield and an axe in hand (to kill the snakes coming out of TV apparently). Nearly …….ed myself.

Another one could hear the program of nearby powerful ABC radio transmitter in their head. No wires, no radio receiver or anything. And they could!

After an hour or so, I was able to work out what was going on.

The fillings in his teeth consisted of different metals. Different metals in contact with each form an electrical "diode". A "diode" is the fundamental component of the old "crystal set" radio receiver to listen to radio broadcasts.

Basically, he had a number of "crystal sets" built into his teeth (fillings) all acting as crystal sets producing program of a strong radio signal (nearby powerful ABC transmitter).

The audio signal produced was known as " audio rectification" and was enough to to be heard in his skull.

He couldn't turn it off. Went for years losing sleep, consulting doctors etc. They didn't believe him and he thought he was going mad.

After visiting his house I knew that diode action was involved, that it had to be "close" to his body and it was in desperation that I asked him if he had teeth fillings.

He went to dentist who humoured him by changing fillings so that they were all the same. No longer dissimilar metals in contact with each other and therefore no diodes or crystal sets.

He never had the problem again and was able to enjoy sleep after that. He was impressed with the solution despite the cost. Wanted to be my second best friend forever. 2 of his specialists rang me to learn more about audio rectification.

I was a bit chuffed too I'll confess.
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Re: Global warming

Post by Matt Flynn » Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:19 am

Good link here to the original reports regarding fossil fuel burning ... https://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2016 ... d-in-1912/

Also, sun is currently in a low-output phase in its 11-year cycle, very few sunspots, so there should be a slight cooling effect, but instead we see warming.

Be interesting when the sun revs up again.


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Re: Global warming

Post by ronje » Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:31 am

Well, I can see no other way out now but to appease the gods starting with human sacrifice.

Any thoughts on which lobby group should be first?

I'd suggest the ABC followed closely by Greens and ALP. Plenty of candidates there. Then we can turn attention towards Fed and State Environment Depts and advisers.

No unallocated Murray Darling water (there's plenty) available to allow farmers to borrow to reduce drought effects or grow fodder for starving stock. New Fed Environment Minister is off to a great start.

Borrowing shouldn't be a new concept for Govt as its borrowing money like crazy for all of its spending commitments despite looming interest rate increases.
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