El Nino

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AJay
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Re: El Nino

Post by AJay »

Pecheur wrote:Hi there,

So what does it means exactly for Darwin?
Are we going to have some rain?
Are we going to be dry as?
Are we going to get some massive cyclones?

What is a typical El Niño in Darwin?

Have a good day,
Pecheur
Dry as a dead dingo's donger is the forecast I believe


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Matt Flynn
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Re: El Nino

Post by Matt Flynn »

Don't think it is possible to predict the northern effect, but it probably means an almighty bushfire season down south.
cliffo32
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Re: El Nino

Post by cliffo32 »

As far as I know Darwin should still get some rain, just not as much as normal. As for the cyclones, they are less likely in an El Nino year.
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Re: El Nino

Post by Matt Flynn »

NBN
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Re: El Nino

Post by NBN »

Matt
Early days but interesting.

'El Niño is usually associated with below-average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia'

In my neck of the woods we are close to (13mm to go) exceeding the September rainfall record. In fact my personal measurements indicate we have already exceeded; but I'll run with the nearest station. By the looks of the radar and the prediction for tomorrow we will most definitely eclipse the total.

After a few less than favourable years the Hunter Valley (and beyond) is looking magnificent heading into Spring / Summer. If, as predicted, the El Nino peaks in mid/late summer we will be in for a precarious bushfire season as per 2013.

So far, so good......
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Matt Flynn
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Re: El Nino

Post by Matt Flynn »

Same here, wet and cold winter, but I suspect a hot dry summer with bushfires is on the cards. Had some Darwin style rain and thunder here this week, I should have tried the culverts :D
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Re: El Nino

Post by NBN »

So the Sept rainfall record was smashed and we kicked off October with a few scorchers (approaching 40 yesterday, about 18 above ave.) for this time of the year.

Anyway of greater interest are the rainfall models for the NT wet given the looming E N and the average runoff for the past 3 years. It's actually not all doom and gloom......if you put your faith in the models.

The BOM Outlook Scenarios (under Climate Outlooks - Monthly and Seasonal) show October having an 'Unlikely' chance of exceeding median rainfall. No big deal given the median rainfall for Oct is largely insignificant (apart from settling the dust). In fact some stations may have registered above the median in the past couple of days with the storm activity.

Oct to Dec looks more promising with most stations registering 'Likely' or 'Equal Likelihood' of receiving above the median rainfall for the period. I caution this statement with caveat that the 'Past Accuracy' is 'Moderate'. The interactive map is quite nifty. Good feature being able to click on a location/station and get a feel for different locations in a particular catchment.

Oct to Dec looks ok but clearly without a solid Jan/Feb start looking towards 2017...stop it! :bonk:
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Re: El Nino

Post by Matt Flynn »

Good one here keeping it in perspective ...http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

Compare the 2015 data with 1997/98, which was the last biggie.

The 'Godzilla El Nino' headlines in the newspapers get a bit tiring.
cuddlescooper
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Re: El Nino

Post by cuddlescooper »

I have an opinion that a low prediction for cyclones isn't a bad thing for rainfall. The past few years have had a few cyclones and all they have done is drag away any monsoon that has formed. I don't feel it will be a monster wet but looking back on past patterns I don't think it will be a complete failure either.
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Re: El Nino

Post by Anon »

Could be onto something there Pete. As soon as we got any monsoon last year it was pulled away within a day or two.

Fingers crossed we get some good rain soon
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Re: El Nino

Post by deepblack »

cuddlescooper wrote:I have an opinion that a low prediction for cyclones isn't a bad thing for rainfall. The past few years have had a few cyclones and all they have done is drag away any monsoon that has formed. I don't feel it will be a monster wet but looking back on past patterns I don't think it will be a complete failure either.
I tend to agree with this line of thinking, unless a (weak) cyclone runs along the coast of the NT they aren't a good thing for us, if a cyclone forms in WA or Qld as Cuddles has said all it does is drag the rain away from the Top End. Solid, consistent, low Monsoonal troughs are on my wish list.
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Re: El Nino

Post by NBN »

Ok I abandoned the technical mumbo jumbo regarding El Nino.

It's all in the chillies.

Last week a significant amount of buds and chillies fell off my plants. My wife tells me they are too wet. We had over 100mm.

No El Nino here.
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