Will the NT get one last blast of heavy rain? : Fishing Polls

Matt Flynn

Will the NT get one last blast of good monsoonal rain?

We might. BOM said on March 3 ...

"Over the past week or so, we have observed a reinvigoration of the monsoon trough over northern Australia, However, the MJO (heavy rain period) signal remains weak and indiscernable.

"There is a moderate level of uncertainty associated with current computer model forecasts of the MJO, which mostly suggest that the MJO will remain weak in its intensity during the next week or two. Weighing up all available guidance, it is expected that although no active phase of the MJO is expected to enter Australian longitudes in the next week or so, north Australian rainfall should remain typical of what can be expected for the month of March.

"At this early stage, the next active MJO to affect Australian longitudes is likely to be towards the end of March / early April, although this comes with considerable uncertainty."

BEAR · Posted: Sat Mar 06, 2010 11:49 am Post subject:

I hope so, I reckon it''ll be p!zzing down by next late next week :bricks:

max · Posted: Sat Mar 06, 2010 1:30 pm Post subject:

Im hoping so too Bear as I dont get hols.for 2 weeks yet and looking at doing the East first week then Finnis the following,we will camp on the boat for a couple of nights at each so thats when it will bucket down the same as it did down the Daly last year,oh well its only water :surf:

scottmac · Posted: Sat Mar 06, 2010 3:16 pm Post subject:

I'm on R&R for two weeks on Wednesday, so if all goes to plan, I'll move into my new house Thursday through to Saturday, head east to the East sunday, Magela will be running at about 600mm, the East will go off on the building tides 8-)

, come back Wednesday, smash Shoal Bay Thursday and Friday, then no plans until back to work Thursday 25th and the monsoon will start same day!!!! :grin:

But when do things ever go to plan? :bonk:

punter · Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2010 9:23 am Post subject:

If you're moving this Thursday you can bet the rain will come then! :wink:

Matt Flynn · Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2010 10:01 am Post subject:

Fairly serious high pressure system coming over ...

Ernie · Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2010 10:20 am Post subject:

I reccon we'll get one more lot in the next couple of weeks 8-)

But even if we scrape up the average for March we'll be around 2 mt for the wet and you can't complain about that :drinking1:

Blinky · Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2010 11:35 am Post subject:

I reckon that's it for another monsoon..............finished. Maybe some arvo storms but for me the Wet is done.

punter · Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2010 11:58 am Post subject:

Blinky wrote:

I reckon that's it for another monsoon..............finished. Maybe some arvo storms but for me the Wet is done.

We might have some good old fashioned "knock 'em downs" eh! :mrgreen:

Walkabout · Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2010 2:56 pm Post subject:

We have had more than the entire wet season average already with 2 months to go. They count on 300mm in march and 100mm aprill average but that would make this the all time record wet season if it did happen. So my guess is it's all over. Looking at the pic of the charts = classic dry season look with that big high pressure. Few knock em downs mxed in and clear blue skies. Perfect

bandit · Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2010 10:47 pm Post subject:

im hoping this is it... give the daly a chance to drop out and green up by end of april. :grin:

Gibbo · Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2010 4:53 pm Post subject:

Just heard from ERNIE (the weather guru) that a weak monsoon could and probably will (wishfull thinking as i,m at Shady for 12 days as of the 28th) develop around the 20 to the 24th of march
Bring it on i say :bow:

cheers

Blinky · Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2010 4:55 pm Post subject:

I'm with CB!

tinni · Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2010 5:32 pm Post subject:

dragon flies in numbers off my balcony last night, always seems to me to be a good indicator the dry is on its way, no more rain I dont think :-?

Ernie · Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2010 9:08 pm Post subject:

Onya Gibbo put the pressure on :fubird:

and I said a weak MJO not monsoon trough, anyway we'll see what comes :drinking1:

Forecast guidance suggest that a weak active MJO event may progress from the Indian Ocean to the east during next week or two. It is expected that although this weak phase of the MJO is likely to propagate through Australian longitudes in the next week or so, north Australian rainfall should remain typical of what can be expected for the month of March.
From the BOM :drinking1:

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