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Posted: Wed Jan 11, 2012 1:15 pm Post subject: Re: MISSING.... 1 X WET SEASON
Looks like it might be missing for a while yet, here's the latest from the "gurus"
. An erratic MJO over the Pacific Over the past seven days, a weak and erratic Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remained in the western Pacific contributing, in some small measure, to convection within the northern flank of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ).
The MJO is forecast to remain weak, but progress eastward throughout the next fortnight. During La Niña events, it’s typical for MJO pulses to weaken over the eastern Pacific as they encounter below-average SSTs and enhanced easterly winds at lower levels.
Drier than average conditions are expected over far northern Australia as the monsoon trough migrates north and extends from the Arafura Sea to the Coral Sea. These drier than average conditions are expected to last at least until late January. In contrast, northern WA and the south western NT can expect above average rainfall and gusty winds in the next few days as a trough draws in moisture from the tropics. A low pressure system over the North West Shelf is expected to intensify before heading south over land. At this stage, it is unlikely this low will develop into a tropical cyclone.
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